{"id":8764,"date":"2026-10-15T11:41:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T09:41:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/crvena-zvezda-paris-le-favori-a-135-joue-sans-raquette\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T23:12:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T21:12:48","slug":"crvena-zvezda-paris-pronostic-2026-10-16","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/basket\/euroleague\/crvena-zvezda-paris-pronostic-2026-10-16\/","title":{"rendered":"Crvena Zvezda &#8211; Paris : le favori \u00e0 1,37 joue sans raquette"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Vendredi \u00e0 la Belgrade Arena, Crvena Zvezda est donn\u00e9e \u00e0 1,37, Paris \u00e0 3,60. Le d\u00e9tail qui retient mon attention est dans la raquette du favori : Motley (aine) manque, Izundu (cheville) est incertain, et le pari que je lis n&#8217;est pas dans le vainqueur, il est dans la marge.<\/p>\n<h2>Trois victoires de suite, sans les pivots<\/h2>\n<p>La saison de la Zvezda s&#8217;\u00e9tait mal ouverte, deux d\u00e9faites d&#8217;entr\u00e9e, avant le redressement : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aba-liga.com\/news\/55193\/el-crvena-zvezda-meridianbet-grab-first-euroleague-win-of-the-season\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">premier succ\u00e8s EuroLeague contre Efes<\/a> (77-72, Carter d\u00e9cisif, Moneke 18 points, Nwora 12), puis 77-58 \u00e0 Dubai. Samedi, l&#8217;ABA a suivi : 101-91 contre Buducnost, au prix de la cheville d&#8217;Ebuka Izundu, <a href=\"https:\/\/srpske.rs\/en\/news\/sport\/2026\/10\/11\/red-star-beat-buducnost-101-91-izundu-injured\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sorti au deuxi\u00e8me quart-temps<\/a> et devenu entre-temps le pivot principal depuis la blessure de Motley. Mardi, la troisi\u00e8me victoire EuroLeague de suite est tomb\u00e9e \u00e0 l&#8217;ASVEL, 84-82, 18 points de Moneke, 19 de Gach. La cha\u00eene des pivots reste cass\u00e9e aux deux bouts.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;infirmerie, <a href=\"https:\/\/basketnews.com\/news-212393-euroleague-injury-report-updated.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mise \u00e0 jour au 14 octobre<\/a> :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Motley, aine : forfait au moins jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 la huiti\u00e8me journ\u00e9e ;<\/li>\n<li>Ebuka Izundu, cheville : incertain, il n&#8217;a pas jou\u00e9 mardi ;<\/li>\n<li>Djurisic, Davidovac et Baldwin : <a href=\"https:\/\/sportal.blic.rs\/prica\/crvena-zvezda-motli-povreda-evroliga-2026100311324599557\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">revenus au 5c5 selon le club<\/a>, le doute est lev\u00e9 ;<\/li>\n<li>Miljenovic, cheville, et Medarevic : toujours incertains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>La r\u00e9ponse de l&#8217;entra\u00eeneur Navarro tient en une formule : du small ball, Moneke et Ojeleye en cinq, avec deux cl\u00e9s affich\u00e9es, les rebonds et le rythme. Et une r\u00e9serve : la double semaine, voyage retour de Dubai puis d\u00e9placement de mardi \u00e0 ASVEL, a laiss\u00e9 des traces de fatigue.<\/p>\n<h2>Paris diminue, mais garde ses finitions<\/h2>\n<p>Les Parisiens ont perdu 96-98 contre l&#8217;ASVEL \u00e0 Halle Georges Carpentier apr\u00e8s une large victoire contre Kaunas, et en championnat, Hifi a arrach\u00e9 un match au buzzer au Mans. Depuis, \u00e7a n&#8217;a pas remont\u00e9 : une d\u00e9faite de plus, mercredi, contre Virtus \u00e0 la Carpentier, et un bilan d&#8217;une victoire et quatre d\u00e9faites en EuroLeague. Sur la derni\u00e8re confrontation document\u00e9e entre les deux clubs, Paris avait battu la Zvezda 102-92, fin d\u00e9cembre, \u00e0 la Carpentier. Ce voyage de Belgrade se fait sans Derek Willis (cheville, absent pour plusieurs semaines) ; Lamar Stevens est annonc\u00e9 disponible (doigt) ; Ntilikina et Maozinha restent incertains ; et une presse serbe annonce Nadir Hifi touch\u00e9 \u00e0 la cheville gauche, sur <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sd.rs\/sport\/kosarka\/pred-dolazak-u-beograd-povredio-se-nadir-hifi-2026-10-12\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">une seule source<\/a> que je ne peux pas recouper : son aptitude reste inconnue. Je ne fonde pas mon pari sur son statut.<\/p>\n<h2>Le march\u00e9 resserre Paris<\/h2>\n<p>La cote de Paris est pass\u00e9e de 4,27 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture \u00e0 3,60, pendant que la Zvezda glissait de 1,35 \u00e0 1,37 ; au relev\u00e9 de jeudi apr\u00e8s-midi, la ligne principale est pass\u00e9e \u00e0 -7, le total \u00e0 172. Un outsider que le march\u00e9 resserre pendant que le contexte penche c\u00f4t\u00e9 favori, c&#8217;est une information : quelque chose a boug\u00e9 depuis l&#8217;ouverture, probablement l&#8217;infirmerie de la raquette locale.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Paris +9,5<\/h2>\n<p>Je prends Paris +9,5 \u00e0 1,71 chez Unibet, cote relev\u00e9e ce jeudi. Le march\u00e9 donne ce pari \u00e0 57 % ; je le donne \u00e0 60 %. Trois points d&#8217;\u00e9cart, \u00e7a ne paie pas une mise pleine : elle tombe au minimum, 0,25 unit\u00e9 (25 $). Je le dis franchement, le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match, je mise petit (18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre). Pour v\u00e9rifier ce calcul chez vous, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de mise<\/a> part d&#8217;une probabilit\u00e9 et d&#8217;un prix.<\/p>\n<p>Les issues, au franc : Paris gagne ou perd de neuf points au plus, le pari est gagn\u00e9 (+17,75 $) ; il perd de dix points ou plus, le pari est perdu (-25 $). Prolongations comprises.<\/p>\n<p>Pourquoi la ligne \u00e0 9,5 plut\u00f4t que la ligne principale : deux points de coussin de plus, \u00e0 1,71 \u00e0 la prise, la ligne courte cotant 1,92 au relev\u00e9 de jeudi. Deux points qui couvrent le sc\u00e9nario du small ball, un match de rythme o\u00f9 l&#8217;\u00e9cart se joue dans la fourchette. Sans raquette au rebond, je vois mal la Zvezda creuser un \u00e9cart \u00e0 deux chiffres, m\u00eame chez elle ; le risque sym\u00e9trique existe, un cinq petit qui voit ses trois points rentrer peut aussi l&#8217;emporter large. La mise minimale le dit. Le r\u00e9sultat ira sur mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, comme toujours.<\/p>\n<h2>La Zvezda gagne de neuf, la ligne demandait neuf et demi<\/h2>\n<p>Crvena Zvezda s&#8217;est impos\u00e9e 90-81 \u00e0 la Belgrade Arena, sur le sc\u00e9nario du small ball que je d\u00e9crivais : sans pivots, le rythme est rest\u00e9 haut et l&#8217;\u00e9cart ne s&#8217;est jamais ouvert. Neuf points de marge au final, pas un de plus. La Zvezda monte \u00e0 4-2 en EuroLeague, quatri\u00e8me victoire d&#8217;affil\u00e9e ; Paris tombe \u00e0 1-5.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari est gagn\u00e9 d&#8217;un demi-point : Paris +9,5 \u00e0 1,71 chez Unibet rapporte 17,75 $ sur les 25 $ mis\u00e9s. Je l&#8217;avais \u00e9crit avant le coup d&#8217;envoi, le march\u00e9 avait bien lu ce match ; la mise minimale restait la bonne mesure d&#8217;un \u00e9cart pareil. Gain port\u00e9 au bilan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crvena Zvezda a battu Paris 90-81 : neuf points de marge, la ligne en demandait neuf et demi. Mon Paris +9,5 \u00e0 1,71 est gagn\u00e9 d&#8217;un demi-point, +17,75 $.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9411,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"La Zvezda, favorite \u00e0 1,37, a perdu ses pivots ; un Paris diminu\u00e9 mais accrocheur reste dans la course. Mon pronostic : Paris +9,5 \u00e0 1,71 chez Unibet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet","ba_away_name":"Paris","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-16 18:00:00","ba_venue":"Beogradska arena","ba_match_key":"api-sports:basketball:508638","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[24,95],"class_list":["post-8764","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-basket","ba_sport-euroleague"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crvena Zvezda &#8211; Paris : le favori \u00e0 1,37 joue sans raquette &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La Zvezda, favorite \u00e0 1,37, a perdu ses pivots ; un Paris diminu\u00e9 mais accrocheur reste dans la course. 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