{"id":8832,"date":"2026-10-15T12:14:13","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T10:14:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/coince-entre-arsenal-et-galatasaray-lille-recoit-le-brest-de-doumbia\/"},"modified":"2026-10-17T23:13:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-17T21:13:15","slug":"lille-brest-pronostic-2026-10-17","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-1\/lille-brest-pronostic-2026-10-17\/","title":{"rendered":"Coinc\u00e9 entre Arsenal et Galatasaray, Lille re\u00e7oit le Brest de Doumbia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mardi soir, Lille a perdu 3-0 \u00e0 Arsenal en Ligue des champions. Samedi, il re\u00e7oit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.losc.fr\/match\/2026-2027\/ligue-1\/lille-vs-brest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">la meilleure attaque de Ligue 1<\/a>. Mardi suivant, Galatasaray vient \u00e0 Pierre-Mauroy pour la C1. Un match coinc\u00e9 entre deux rendez-vous europ\u00e9ens, et je joue Brest ou le nul.<\/p>\n<h2>Deuxi\u00e8me du championnat, z\u00e9ro point en Europe<\/h2>\n<p>Lille est deuxi\u00e8me, 13 points en six matchs, avec un 1-0 arrach\u00e9 contre Le Havre avant le voyage \u00e0 Londres. En Europe, le tableau s&#8217;inverse : z\u00e9ro point en deux journ\u00e9es, et un match r\u00e9gl\u00e9 en sept minutes par Arsenal (Timber 64e, Eze 67e, Saka 71e). Le calendrier ne pardonne pas : trois jours de r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration entre Londres et Brest, puis Galatasaray mardi. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.onzemondial.com\/ligue-1\/lille-tout-le-temps-complique-ancelotti-encense-une-nouvelle-fois-la-ligue-1-1002253\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Davide Ancelotti<\/a>, satisfait des points du Havre, r\u00e9clamait \u00ab mieux avec ballon \u00bb : son \u00e9quipe a le ballon, elle use moins ses adversaires.<\/p>\n<h2>Brest joue sans pression, et \u00e7a se voit<\/h2>\n<p>Le Stade Brestois est septi\u00e8me avec douze buts en six matchs, meilleure attaque du championnat. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.letelegramme.fr\/sports\/football\/stade-brestois\/sept-mois-plus-tard-le-stade-brestois-lemporte-a-domicile-en-ecrasant-angers-et-de-quelle-maniere-7135834.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cinq buts \u00e0 Angers samedi<\/a>, quatre avant la pause, premi\u00e8re victoire \u00e0 domicile depuis mars. Kamory Doumbia compte quatre buts, Path\u00e9 Mboup a scor\u00e9 et donn\u00e9 contre Angers. Julien Lachuer, arriv\u00e9 cet \u00e9t\u00e9 dans la continuit\u00e9 laiss\u00e9e par \u00c9ric Roy, a un groupe qui marque souvent et encaisse aussi : peu de matches sans but encaiss\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Sans la pression du r\u00e9sultat, avec un Lille \u00e0 mener deux matchs par semaine, c&#8217;est dans le dernier quart d&#8217;heure que je vois le nul ou le coup de Brest : des jambes fra\u00eeches qui attaquent un bloc \u00e9tir\u00e9.<\/p>\n<h2>Les absents p\u00e8sent plus c\u00f4t\u00e9 Lille<\/h2>\n<p>Les compositions sont tomb\u00e9es, et elles confirment le point blessures de jeudi.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lille : Tiago Santos (ligament crois\u00e9, saison compromise) et Hamza Igamane (genou) forfaits ; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foot-sur7.fr\/785766-losc-ancelotti-tient-le-remplacant-parfait-dethan-mbappe\">Ethan Mbapp\u00e9<\/a>, incertain toute la semaine (cheville), est titulaire.<\/li>\n<li>Ayase Ueda, sorti \u00e0 la 78e minute \u00e0 Arsenal sur un coup au talon, est forfait.<\/li>\n<li>Brest : Le Guen (jambe) forfait ; Diambou, incertain, ne commence pas.<\/li>\n<li>Brest, dernier point : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.letelegramme.fr\/sports\/football\/stade-brestois\/chardonnet-toujours-a-larret-versini-trop-juste-le-point-sur-les-blessures-au-stade-brestois-avant-le-deplacement-a-lille-7138785.php\">Chardonnet (mollet), annonc\u00e9 \u00ab pas du voyage \u00bb par Lachuer<\/a>, est bien absent, comme Versini (mollet) ; Edjouma ne joue pas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Les cinq derni\u00e8res confrontations<\/h3>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Recevant<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<th>Vainqueur<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>14\/02\/2026<\/td>\n<td>Lille<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<td>match nul<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>17\/08\/2025<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<td>3-3<\/td>\n<td>match nul<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10\/05\/2025<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>06\/12\/2024<\/td>\n<td>Lille<\/td>\n<td>3-1<\/td>\n<td>Lille<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>17\/03\/2024<\/td>\n<td>Brest<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<td>match nul<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Trois nuls et une victoire de chaque c\u00f4t\u00e9 sur les cinq derniers : ces deux \u00e9quipes se neutralisent souvent. Lille domine le ballon, Brest pique en transition, et le match s&#8217;enlise.<\/p>\n<h2>Le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9gonfl\u00e9 Lille<\/h2>\n<p>Lille reste favori, mais sa cote est pass\u00e9e de 1,73 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture \u00e0 1,93 (relev\u00e9 de jeudi), pendant que Brest resserrait de 5,10 \u00e0 4,05 ; le nul est \u00e0 3,99. La double chance Brest ou nul a fondu au m\u00eame rythme : 2,30 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture, 2,00 vendredi chez Betway ; mon pari reste au prix o\u00f9 je l&#8217;ai pris. Je valorise ce sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 51 %, le march\u00e9 en affiche 49 : l&#8217;\u00e9cart s&#8217;est r\u00e9duit, le march\u00e9 a rejoint mon camp.<\/p>\n<h2>Brest ou nul \u00e0 2,05 : 0,5 unit\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Le pari : Brest ou match nul, \u00e0 2,05 chez 1xbet, temps r\u00e9glementaire. Brest gagne ou accroche le nul, et les 50 $ mis\u00e9s rapportent 52,65 $ ; Lille gagne, et les 50 $ sont perdus.<\/p>\n<p>Compositions confirm\u00e9es : Brest sort son attaque au complet (Doumbia, Mboup, Bald\u00e9, Ajorque) ; Lille garde la sienne, avec Giroud en pointe. Ma lecture tient. 0,5 unit\u00e9. Le sc\u00e9nario qui fait gagner le pari : un Lille juste, \u00e0 trois jours d&#8217;Arsenal et \u00e0 trois jours de Galatasaray, qui baisse de rythme apr\u00e8s l&#8217;heure de jeu face \u00e0 des attaquants frais. Celui qui le perd : un Pierre-Mauroy plein et un Lille qui ma\u00eetrise comme contre Le Havre. La mise suit le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a>, le r\u00e9sultat ira au <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagnant ou perdant. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Un quatri\u00e8me nul en six confrontations<\/h2>\n<p>Lille et Brest se sont quitt\u00e9s sur un nul, 1-1. C&#8217;\u00e9tait le sc\u00e9nario que je cherchais : un Lille coinc\u00e9 entre Arsenal et Galatasaray qui ne gagne pas, un Brest qui repart avec le point. Ces deux \u00e9quipes se neutralisent, encore.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari est gagn\u00e9 : Brest ou nul \u00e0 2,05 chez 1xbet, 0,5 unit\u00e9, 52,65 $ de gain pour les 50 $ mis\u00e9s. Le nul a suffi, la double chance couvrait aussi une victoire brestoise. Au coup d&#8217;envoi, la m\u00eame s\u00e9lection ne payait plus que 1,98 : le march\u00e9 a fini par lire le match de mon c\u00f4t\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lille et Brest ont fait match nul (1-1) : mon pari Brest ou nul \u00e0 2,05 chez 1xbet est gagn\u00e9, 52,65 $ de gain port\u00e9s au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9846,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Lille - Brest : Lille sorti d\u2019Arsenal, coinc\u00e9 avant Galatasaray, face \u00e0 la meilleure attaque du championnat. Brest ou nul \u00e0 2,05, mise 0,5 unit\u00e9.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Lille","ba_away_name":"Stade Brestois 29","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-17 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Stade Pierre-Mauroy","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1552786","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pvqupudk7rp","author_id":4,"market":"Double chance","selection":"Brest ou nul","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"dc","selection_key":"x2","line":null,"odds":2.053,"stake_units":0.5,"stake_amount":50,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":52.65,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-15 10:14:38","settled_at":"2026-10-17 20:45:05","probability":0.51,"p_market":0.4796,"p_used":0.4948,"edge":0.0158,"market_margin":0.0597,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":1.98,"p_close":0.5401,"clv":0.1088,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,50],"class_list":["post-8832","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-1"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Coinc\u00e9 entre Arsenal et Galatasaray, Lille re\u00e7oit le Brest de Doumbia &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Lille - Brest : Lille sorti d\u2019Arsenal, coinc\u00e9 avant Galatasaray, face \u00e0 la meilleure attaque du championnat. 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