{"id":8997,"date":"2026-10-15T20:47:40","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T18:47:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/united-navait-plus-commence-aussi-mal-depuis-1986-leeds-repose-attend-a-elland-road\/"},"modified":"2026-10-18T17:15:27","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T15:15:27","slug":"leeds-manchester-united-pronostic-2026-10-18","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/premier-league\/leeds-manchester-united-pronostic-2026-10-18\/","title":{"rendered":"United n&#8217;avait plus commenc\u00e9 aussi mal depuis 1986 : Leeds, repos\u00e9, attend \u00e0 Elland Road"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Manchester United n&#8217;avait plus aussi mal d\u00e9marr\u00e9 depuis 1986 : six points en six matchs, une seule victoire, une treizi\u00e8me place. Dimanche, le derby des Pennines l&#8217;attend \u00e0 Elland Road, dans un stade qui n&#8217;a jamais eu besoin d&#8217;arguments pour d\u00e9tester United. Leeds, septi\u00e8me avec neuf points, a eu la semaine enti\u00e8re pour pr\u00e9parer la rencontre ; United, lui, revient de Madrid.<\/p>\n<h2>Madrid mardi, Elland Road dimanche<\/h2>\n<p>United a perdu 2-0 \u00e0 l&#8217;Atl\u00e9tico mardi soir en Ligue des champions, trois jours apr\u00e8s ce 1-1 conc\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 Old Trafford contre Tottenham : Mbeumo avait ouvert le score, Bentancur \u00e9tait exclu, Solanke \u00e9galisait \u00e0 dix contre onze dans le temps additionnel. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk\/sport\/football\/leeds-united\/leeds-united-man-united-9289713\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cinq jours s\u00e9parent Madrid du derby<\/a>, la position de Michael Carrick se discute d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans la presse anglaise, et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theleedspress.com\/manager-tipped-for-sack-as-leeds-united-curse-threatens-man-utd-again-53999\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ruben Amorim avait \u00e9t\u00e9 limog\u00e9 au lendemain du 1-1<\/a> entre ces deux clubs en janvier. Carrick a aussi r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que son capitaine <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2026\/10\/12\/manchester-united-duo-ruled-atletico-madrid-clash-champions-league-29702996\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bruno Fernandes joue avec une blessure<\/a> depuis le d\u00e9but de saison. Et le bruit ne s&#8217;arr\u00eate pas : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fotmob.com\/fa\/news\/k0vumt2dvmsh1dkqgfb114h2j-carrick-insists-man-utd-have-moved-after-martinez-statement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lisandro Martinez a critiqu\u00e9 publiquement le manque d&#8217;investissement du club<\/a>, visant son directeur technique, avant de s&#8217;excuser ; Carrick a tranch\u00e9 vendredi, l&#8217;Argentin est dans le groupe. Andrey Santos et Carlos Baleba, recrut\u00e9s pr\u00e8s de 120 millions de livres \u00e0 deux, n&#8217;ont pas encore invers\u00e9 la pente.<\/p>\n<h2>Leeds solide chez lui, priv\u00e9 de Rodon<\/h2>\n<p>Leeds a conc\u00e9d\u00e9 sa premi\u00e8re d\u00e9faite de la saison \u00e0 Arsenal (2-1, \u00e9galisation de Justin), et Arteta a reconnu que son \u00e9quipe avait eu de la chance. \u00c0 Elland Road, l&#8217;assise tient : 0-0 contre Crystal Palace, 4-1 contre Newcastle, Calvert-Lewin d\u00e9j\u00e0 trois buts en championnat. La charni\u00e8re se recompose tout de m\u00eame : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goal.com\/en\/news\/leeds-united-manchester-united-premier-league-preview\/bltf8dfd31d45b509a5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Joe Rodon (ischio-jambiers)<\/a> est absent huit \u00e0 dix semaines. Les absents et incertains, camp par camp :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Leeds : Rodon (ischio-jambiers) et Mateo Joseph (genou) forfaits.<\/li>\n<li>Daniel James (dos), de retour \u00e0 l&#8217;entra\u00eenement depuis jeudi, a une vraie chance d&#8217;\u00eatre dans le groupe ; Bahoya et Wilson sont disponibles.<\/li>\n<li>Manchester United : Dorgu (ischio), Ugarte (genou, longue dur\u00e9e) et Heaton dehors ; Shaw et Mainoo toujours incertains, Mazraoui sur une pente optimiste.<\/li>\n<li>Sesko (jambe) : examens en cours, encore \u00e9loign\u00e9 ; De Ligt (dos) reste au loin.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Ce que dit la forme des deux \u00e9quipes<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>10\/10<\/td>\n<td>Arsenal &#8211; Leeds<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20\/09<\/td>\n<td>Leeds &#8211; Crystal Palace<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>14\/09<\/td>\n<td>Leeds &#8211; Newcastle<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>4-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>09\/09<\/td>\n<td>Chelsea &#8211; Leeds<\/td>\n<td>League Cup<\/td>\n<td>6-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>05\/09<\/td>\n<td>Brighton &#8211; Leeds<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>13\/10<\/td>\n<td>Atletico Madrid &#8211; Manchester United<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des champions<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10\/10<\/td>\n<td>Manchester United &#8211; Tottenham<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20\/09<\/td>\n<td>Fulham &#8211; Manchester United<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>16\/09<\/td>\n<td>Manchester United &#8211; Brighton<\/td>\n<td>League Cup<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>13\/09<\/td>\n<td>Manchester United &#8211; Manchester City<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Sur ces cinq matchs, Leeds a marqu\u00e9 \u00e0 chaque fois et United n&#8217;a pas gagn\u00e9 une seule fois. Le dernier derby comp\u00e9titif date d&#8217;avril : Leeds s&#8217;\u00e9tait impos\u00e9 2-1 \u00e0 Old Trafford, apr\u00e8s un 1-1 \u00e0 Elland Road en janvier. Deux victoires de suite contre United, Leeds n&#8217;en a plus connu depuis 1971-72 ; et United reste invaincu sur ses sept derniers d\u00e9placements \u00e0 Elland Road, sans y perdre depuis septembre 2002.<\/p>\n<h2>Le pari : Leeds gagnant<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 a bascul\u00e9 : Leeds, pris \u00e0 2,42 jeudi chez 1xbet, cote toujours 2,43 ce samedi, resserr\u00e9 depuis l&#8217;ouverture (2,60), pendant qu&#8217;United d\u00e9rivait de 2,85 vers 3,00. L&#8217;actualit\u00e9 du week-end n&#8217;a pas boug\u00e9 le prix. Je donne 44 % de victoire \u00e0 Leeds, un peu plus que la cote (41 %) : la fra\u00eecheur, le domicile, un adversaire en panne. Le pari est gagn\u00e9 si Leeds s&#8217;impose (+71,20 $ net pour une demi-unit\u00e9), perdu sur un nul ou un succ\u00e8s de United (-50 $).<\/p>\n<p>Une demi-unit\u00e9 (50 $), pas davantage : un derby garde sa variance propre, et Leeds n&#8217;a plus gagn\u00e9 depuis le 14 septembre. Je mise la fra\u00eecheur et le domicile contre la crise adverse, sans forcer ; pour ajuster votre propre mise, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> fait le calcul, et le r\u00e9sultat rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Mbeumo ouvre, Calvert-Lewin r\u00e9pond : 1-1<\/h2>\n<p>Leeds et Manchester United ont fait 1-1 \u00e0 Elland Road. Mbeumo a ouvert pour United de pr\u00e8s, au bout d&#8217;un centre de Tielemans (35e) ; Calvert-Lewin a r\u00e9pondu \u00e0 la 51e, sur un corner de Stach d\u00e9vi\u00e9 par Muharemovic. United reste invaincu dans ce stade, o\u00f9 il n&#8217;a plus perdu depuis septembre 2002, et ce match est son sixi\u00e8me d&#8217;affil\u00e9e sans victoire. Le compte rendu du <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk\/sport\/football\/leeds-united\/leeds-united-manchester-united-score-goals-report-9294643\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yorkshire Evening Post<\/a> dit le reste.<\/p>\n<p>Carrick avait maintenu Mart\u00ednez dans le onze ; il l&#8217;a sorti \u00e0 la pause pour Mazraoui, qui a perdu Muharemovic sur le corner de l&#8217;\u00e9galisation. Leeds a eu sa balle de victoire dans le temps additionnel : la reprise de Stach a pass\u00e9 Lammens et trouv\u00e9 Mazraoui sur sa route.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari est perdu : Leeds vainqueur \u00e0 2,42 chez 1xbet meurt sur ce nul. Perte de 50 $, la demi-unit\u00e9, port\u00e9e au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Leeds et Manchester United ont fait 1-1 (Mbeumo, Calvert-Lewin) : mon Leeds vainqueur \u00e0 2,42 chez 1xbet est perdu sur ce nul, 50 $ port\u00e9s au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9942,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Leeds &#8211; Manchester United : pronostic du derby. United au pire d\u00e9part depuis 1986, Leeds repos\u00e9 : je prends Leeds gagnant \u00e0 2,42 chez 1xbet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Leeds","ba_away_name":"Manchester United","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-18 13:00:00","ba_venue":"Elland Road","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1557432","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pnrn6refuad","author_id":4,"market":"Vainqueur du match","selection":"Leeds","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"ml","selection_key":"home","line":null,"odds":2.424,"stake_units":0.5,"stake_amount":50,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":71.2,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"lost","recorded_at":"2026-10-15 18:48:00","settled_at":"2026-10-18 15:00:07","probability":0.44,"p_market":0.4041,"p_used":0.4221,"edge":0.023,"market_margin":0.0485,"market_books":7,"closing_odds":2.65,"p_close":0.3781,"clv":-0.0835,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,70],"class_list":["post-8997","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-premier-league"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>United n&#8217;avait plus commenc\u00e9 aussi mal depuis 1986 : Leeds, repos\u00e9, attend \u00e0 Elland Road &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Leeds &#8211; Manchester United : pronostic du derby. 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