{"id":9228,"date":"2026-10-16T11:44:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T09:44:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/lyon-nice-un-mois-sans-openda-et-un-nice-toujours-a-zero-point-en-deplacement\/"},"modified":"2026-10-18T23:10:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-18T21:10:24","slug":"lyon-nice-pronostic-2026-10-18","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-1\/lyon-nice-pronostic-2026-10-18\/","title":{"rendered":"Lyon &#8211; Nice : un mois sans Openda, et un Nice toujours \u00e0 z\u00e9ro point en d\u00e9placement"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Jeudi soir, l&#8217;OL a battu Crystal Palace en Ligue Europa avec un onze remani\u00e9, comme l&#8217;avait promis Paulo Fonseca. Samedi, \u00e0 la veille du match, le coach a confirm\u00e9 un roulement important pour le retour de la Ligue 1. Lyon, cinqui\u00e8me avec 11 points, revient apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9faite de Lens, sa premi\u00e8re de la saison, face \u00e0 un adversaire que <a href=\"https:\/\/ligue1.com\/fr\/articles\/l1_article_5732-mpp-les-infos-de-la-journee-l1\">la ligue officielle<\/a> voit \u00ab id\u00e9al \u00bb : un Nice sans point pris en d\u00e9placement. La cote de Lyon est pass\u00e9e de 1,71 \u00e0 1,75 chez 1xbet dans la semaine. Je garde mon angle : plus de 2,5 buts \u00e0 1,72 chez Betano.<\/p>\n<h2>Descamps dans le but, et le reste suit<\/h2>\n<p>Lo\u00efs Openda sort d&#8217;une <a href=\"https:\/\/www.radioespace.com\/news\/locales\/225106\/ol-une-fissure-du-perone-pour-lois-openda-absent-au-moins-un-mois\">fissure du p\u00e9ron\u00e9 droit<\/a> contract\u00e9e \u00e0 Lens : au moins un mois sans lui. Fonseca doit r\u00e9attribuer la finition, et il a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 bouger jeudi, Nakamura d&#8217;entr\u00e9e. Samedi, il a d\u00e9sign\u00e9 son gardien : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.leprogres.fr\/sport\/2026\/10\/17\/ol-nice-paulo-fonseca-va-titulariser-remy-descamps-et-annonce-un-turnover\">R\u00e9my Descamps garde les buts<\/a>, et le onze officiel du dimanche a suivi le mouvement : Athekame, Mata, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.leprogres.fr\/sport\/2026\/10\/14\/ol-moussa-niakhate-de-retour-nicolas-tagliafico-out-trois-semaines\">Niakhat\u00e9, revenu de blessure<\/a> et Abner en d\u00e9fense ; Bidstrup et Tessmann \u00e0 l&#8217;entrejeu ; Duranville, Nartey et Boudache derri\u00e8re \u0160ulc, seul en pointe. Tyler Morton ne d\u00e9bute pas : trois matchs en une semaine, sa pubalgie ne s&#8217;y pr\u00eatait pas.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lo\u00efs Openda : fissure du p\u00e9ron\u00e9 droit, absent au moins un mois ;<\/li>\n<li>Nicolas Tagliafico : genou, \u00e9cart\u00e9 environ trois semaines ;<\/li>\n<li>Ouedraogo : genou, absent dimanche.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Z\u00e9ro point en voyage, une d\u00e9fense en chantier<\/h2>\n<p>Le Nice d&#8217;Olivier Pantaloni, arriv\u00e9 en juin pour succ\u00e9der \u00e0 Claude Puel, n&#8217;a pris aucun point hors de la C\u00f4te d&#8217;Azur : deux d\u00e9placements, deux d\u00e9faites, aucun but marqu\u00e9. La victoire renversante sur Strasbourg est rest\u00e9e \u00e0 la maison ; \u00e0 8 points, le club est douzi\u00e8me. Pour le voyage rhodanien, le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.getfootballnewsfrance.com\/2026\/ogc-nice-predicted-xi-v-strasbourg-no-fresh-injury-concerns-for-olivier-pantaloni\/\">chantier d\u00e9fensif continue<\/a> : le onze ni\u00e7ois place Diouf dans le but, devant Abdelmonem, Ndayishimiye et Mandza Tsiendi en d\u00e9fense \u00e0 trois ; Bombito, Mendy, Abergel et Sanson, bless\u00e9s, ne voyagent pas, et Abdi, g\u00ean\u00e9 au quadriceps, ne d\u00e9bute pas. Clauss, Boudaoui, Witsel et Nkounkou tiennent le milieu ; Wahi est en pointe, Amoura et Hein en retrait. Une d\u00e9fense rapi\u00e9c\u00e9e au Groupama finit souvent par encaisser.<\/p>\n<h2>Sept matchs sur dix au-dessus de la ligne<\/h2>\n<p>Quatre des cinq derniers matchs de Lyon et trois des cinq derniers de Nice ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 deux buts et demi, coupes d&#8217;Europe comprises, qui ne p\u00e8sent pas la Ligue 1. Sur les cinq derni\u00e8res confrontations, Lyon en a gagn\u00e9 quatre, la seule d\u00e9faite 3-2 \u00e0 Nice, il y a exactement un an. Le Groupama a ensuite rendu les cartes : 2-0 en f\u00e9vrier.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u00c9quipe<\/th>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Lieu<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Lyon<\/td>\n<td>15\/10<\/td>\n<td>Crystal Palace<\/td>\n<td>Ligue Europa<\/td>\n<td>domicile<\/td>\n<td>V 3-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Lyon<\/td>\n<td>09\/10<\/td>\n<td>Lens<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>D 1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Lyon<\/td>\n<td>19\/09<\/td>\n<td>Rennes<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>domicile<\/td>\n<td>V 4-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Lyon<\/td>\n<td>16\/09<\/td>\n<td>Anderlecht<\/td>\n<td>Ligue Europa<\/td>\n<td>ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>V 2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Lyon<\/td>\n<td>12\/09<\/td>\n<td>Paris FC<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>N 0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>11\/10<\/td>\n<td>Strasbourg<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>domicile<\/td>\n<td>V 2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>20\/09<\/td>\n<td>Lille<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>domicile<\/td>\n<td>V 2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>12\/09<\/td>\n<td>Auxerre<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>D 0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>05\/09<\/td>\n<td>Le Mans<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>domicile<\/td>\n<td>N 1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Nice<\/td>\n<td>30\/08<\/td>\n<td>Paris FC<\/td>\n<td>Ligue 1<\/td>\n<td>ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>D 0-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Plus de 2,5 buts \u00e0 1,72 chez Betano<\/h2>\n<p>Je donne 59 % \u00e0 un match \u00e0 trois buts ou plus. \u00c0 1,72, cote Betano relev\u00e9e lundi, le march\u00e9 en affiche environ 57, et la ligne a boug\u00e9 d&#8217;un rien depuis. L&#8217;\u00e9cart est trop mince pour valoir un avantage : mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9, soit 25 $, pour 18 $ nets. Les compositions officielles ne changent pas l&#8217;\u00e9quilibre : le roulement lyonnais temp\u00e8re l&#8217;argument offensif, la d\u00e9fense ni\u00e7oise diminu\u00e9e le tient debout. Le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match : je le penche vers les buts, sans valeur nette \u00e0 vendre. Pour chiffrer votre propre conviction, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> fait le compte.<\/p>\n<p>Trois buts ou plus dans le temps r\u00e9glementaire, le pari passe ; deux ou moins, les 25 $ sont perdus. Le sc\u00e9nario qui le fait perdre : un onze lyonnais recompos\u00e9 qui g\u00e8re son effort entre Crystal Palace et Hoffenheim, et un bloc ni\u00e7ois qui tient. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre. Ce pronostic rejoint <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">mon bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 comme perdu.<\/p>\n<h2>Trois buts en vingt minutes, l&#8217;OL seul en t\u00eate<\/h2>\n<p>Lyon a battu Nice 2-1 dimanche soir au Groupama et se retrouve seul en t\u00eate de la Ligue 1, avec 14 points, \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence de buts. Nice avait ouvert par Wahi \u00e0 la 17e, au bout d&#8217;un contre men\u00e9 par Clauss ; quatre minutes plus tard, Tessmann renversait le match d&#8217;une t\u00eate d\u00e9crois\u00e9e, sur un centre d&#8217;Athekame apr\u00e8s un coup franc jou\u00e9 vite par Boudache. Les trois buts \u00e9taient tomb\u00e9s. R\u00e9duit \u00e0 dix pour les vingt derni\u00e8res minutes, l&#8217;OL a tenu : la barre de Witsel \u00e0 la 52e, le poteau de Wahi, un 2-2 ni\u00e7ois refus\u00e9 pour hors-jeu. Le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.radioscoop.com\/sport\/ol-nice-2-1-a-10-contre-11-les-gones-se-surpassent-et-prennent-la-tete-de-la-ligue-1_365845\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">compte rendu de Radio SCOOP<\/a> dit la suite.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;angle de l&#8217;avant-match tient : troisi\u00e8me d\u00e9placement, troisi\u00e8me d\u00e9faite, et le premier but ni\u00e7ois marqu\u00e9 loin de la C\u00f4te d&#8217;Azur ne rapporte toujours aucun point. Le onze recompos\u00e9 de Fonseca, lui, a dos\u00e9 son effort entre Crystal Palace et le d\u00e9placement \u00e0 Hoffenheim, jeudi, et l&#8217;a emport\u00e9 quand m\u00eame.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari est gagn\u00e9, et vite : trois buts en un peu plus de vingt minutes, le plus de 2,5 buts \u00e0 1,72 chez Betano n&#8217;a pas eu le temps de faire peur. La mise \u00e9tait minimale, 25 $, un quart d&#8217;unit\u00e9, sans valeur nette \u00e0 la prise. Les 18 $ de gain net, port\u00e9s au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lyon renverse Nice 2-1 et prend la t\u00eate de la Ligue 1 : mon plus de 2,5 buts \u00e0 1,72 chez Betano est gagn\u00e9 au Groupama, 18 $ port\u00e9s au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":10128,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Lyon &#8211; Nice (Ligue 1, J7) : plus de 2,5 buts \u00e0 1,72 chez Betano, mise minimale, entre roulement lyonnais et d\u00e9fense ni\u00e7oise diminu\u00e9e.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Lyon","ba_away_name":"Nice","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-18 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Groupama Stadium","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1552788","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pdbh3ot6xfj","author_id":4,"market":"Total de buts","selection":"Plus de 2,5 buts","bookmaker":"Betano","market_key":"totals","selection_key":"over","line":2.5,"odds":1.72,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":18,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-16 09:45:28","settled_at":"2026-10-18 20:45:03","probability":0.59,"p_market":0.5733,"p_used":0.5817,"edge":0.0004,"market_margin":0.0598,"market_books":9,"closing_odds":1.742,"p_close":0.5688,"clv":-0.0217,"stake_rule":"min"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,50],"class_list":["post-9228","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-1"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lyon &#8211; 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