{"id":353,"date":"2026-09-26T14:27:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T14:46:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:46:03","slug":"calculateur-kelly","status":"publish","type":"ba_tool","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/","title":{"rendered":"Calculateur de Kelly et de mise en unit\u00e9s"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c0 quoi sert ce calculateur<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le crit\u00e8re de Kelly indique quelle part de la bankroll miser pour faire cro\u00eetre le capital le plus vite possible sur la dur\u00e9e, \u00e0 condition que votre estimation de probabilit\u00e9 soit juste. Il met un chiffre sur une intuition : plus l\u2019avantage est grand, plus la mise peut l\u2019\u00eatre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment l\u2019utiliser<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list ba-steps\">\n<li><strong>Saisissez la cote.<\/strong> Dans le format de votre choix.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Donnez votre estimation.<\/strong> La probabilit\u00e9, en pourcentage, que vous accordez \u00e0 l\u2019issue.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Indiquez votre bankroll et votre unit\u00e9.<\/strong> Pour obtenir la mise en montant et en unit\u00e9s.<\/li>\n\n\n<li><strong>Choisissez une fraction.<\/strong> \u00bc Kelly par d\u00e9faut, le r\u00e9glage le plus prudent.<\/li>\n\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La formule<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Part de Kelly = (cote \u00d7 probabilit\u00e9 \u2212 1) \/ (cote \u2212 1).<\/li>\n\n\n<li>Mise = bankroll \u00d7 part de Kelly \u00d7 fraction choisie.<\/li>\n\n\n<li>Mise en unit\u00e9s = mise \/ valeur de l\u2019unit\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n<li>Avantage estim\u00e9 = cote \u00d7 probabilit\u00e9 \u2212 1 ; seuil de rentabilit\u00e9 = 1 \/ cote.<\/li>\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Exemple chiffr\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cote de 2,00, probabilit\u00e9 estim\u00e9e \u00e0 55 %, bankroll de 1 000, unit\u00e9 de 10, \u00bc Kelly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><thead><tr><th>\u00c9tape<\/th><th>Calcul<\/th><th>R\u00e9sultat<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Avantage estim\u00e9<\/td><td>2,00 \u00d7 0,55 \u2212 1<\/td><td>+10 %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kelly complet<\/td><td>(2,00 \u00d7 0,55 \u2212 1) \/ (2,00 \u2212 1)<\/td><td>10 %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00bc Kelly<\/td><td>10 % \u00d7 0,25<\/td><td>2,5 %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mise<\/td><td>1 000 \u00d7 2,5 %<\/td><td>25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>En unit\u00e9s<\/td><td>25 \/ 10<\/td><td>2,5 u<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi une fraction de Kelly<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kelly complet suppose une estimation exacte. Or une probabilit\u00e9 surestim\u00e9e de quelques points suffit \u00e0 faire miser beaucoup trop. Miser \u00bc ou \u00bd Kelly r\u00e9duit fortement les \u00e9carts de bankroll pour une croissance \u00e0 peine moindre : c\u2019est le compromis que retiennent la plupart des parieurs m\u00e9thodiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si votre estimation ne d\u00e9passe pas le seuil de rentabilit\u00e9, la mise conseill\u00e9e est z\u00e9ro. Le calculateur ne cherche pas de pari l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il n\u2019y a pas d\u2019avantage.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les limites<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le r\u00e9sultat ne vaut que ce que vaut votre estimation. Pour plusieurs paris jou\u00e9s en m\u00eame temps, ou li\u00e9s entre eux, la formule simple surestime la mise : r\u00e9duisez la fraction.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dimensionne ta mise \u00e0 partir de ta cote, de ton estimation de probabilit\u00e9 et de ta bankroll, avec une fraction de Kelly prudente.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":2,"template":"","meta":{"ba_tool_widget":"kelly","ba_tool_family":"stake","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-353","ba_tool","type-ba_tool","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Calculateur de Kelly : mise optimale en unit\u00e9s \u00b7 Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Calculez la mise optimale selon le crit\u00e8re de Kelly : probabilit\u00e9 estim\u00e9e, cote, fraction de Kelly et mise en unit\u00e9s de votre bankroll. 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