{"id":358,"date":"2026-09-26T14:27:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/outils\/simulateur-variance\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T14:46:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:46:04","slug":"simulateur-variance","status":"publish","type":"ba_tool","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/outils\/simulateur-variance\/","title":{"rendered":"Simulateur de variance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00c0 quoi sert ce simulateur<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

M\u00eame avec un vrai avantage, une s\u00e9rie de paris peut mal tourner pendant longtemps. Le simulateur joue des centaines de s\u00e9ries avec vos param\u00e8tres et montre ce que la chance peut faire \u00e0 votre bankroll : la fourchette des r\u00e9sultats, les pertes passag\u00e8res et le risque de tout perdre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comment l\u2019utiliser<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  1. D\u00e9crivez vos paris types.<\/strong> Cote moyenne et probabilit\u00e9 estim\u00e9e de gagner.<\/li>\n\n\n
  2. Fixez la bankroll et la mise en unit\u00e9s.<\/strong> Tout est exprim\u00e9 en unit\u00e9s, comme dans nos bilans.<\/li>\n\n\n
  3. Choisissez la longueur.<\/strong> Le nombre de paris par s\u00e9rie et le nombre de s\u00e9ries simul\u00e9es.<\/li>\n\n\n
  4. Relancez.<\/strong> Chaque simulation tire de nouveaux r\u00e9sultats au hasard.<\/li>\n\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Ce que montrent les r\u00e9sultats<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • Risque de ruine<\/strong> : la part des s\u00e9ries o\u00f9 la bankroll ne permet plus de miser.<\/li>\n\n\n
    • Bankroll finale m\u00e9diane<\/strong> : la moiti\u00e9 des s\u00e9ries finit au-dessus, l\u2019autre en dessous.<\/li>\n\n\n
    • Drawdown m\u00e9dian<\/strong> : la plus forte baisse depuis un sommet, sur une s\u00e9rie typique.<\/li>\n\n\n
    • Intervalle 5e\u201395e centile<\/strong> : la fourchette dans laquelle finissent 90 % des s\u00e9ries.<\/li>\n\n\n
    • Graphique<\/strong> : 40 s\u00e9ries tir\u00e9es au hasard, la m\u00e9diane en vert, les s\u00e9ries perdantes en rouge.<\/li>\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Exemple chiffr\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Cote de 2,00, 52 % de chances de gagner, 100 u de bankroll, 1 u par pari, 500 paris. L\u2019esp\u00e9rance est de 500 \u00d7 (2,00 \u00d7 0,52 \u2212 1) = +20 u, soit 120 u en moyenne \u00e0 l\u2019arriv\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Mais l\u2019\u00e9cart-type sur 500 paris est d\u2019environ 22 u. Environ 90 % des s\u00e9ries finissent donc entre +20 \u2212 37 u et +20 + 37 u : une part non n\u00e9gligeable perd de l\u2019argent malgr\u00e9 un avantage r\u00e9el. C\u2019est exactement ce que le simulateur rend visible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Les limites<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Le mod\u00e8le suppose une probabilit\u00e9 fixe, des paris ind\u00e9pendants et une mise constante. La r\u00e9alit\u00e9 est plus irr\u00e9guli\u00e8re : votre estimation peut \u00eatre fausse, les cotes varient. Il s\u2019agit d\u2019une simulation, pas d\u2019une pr\u00e9vision.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Simule des centaines de s\u00e9ries de paris pour voir ce que la chance peut faire \u00e0 ta bankroll : drawdown, risque de ruine, fourchette de r\u00e9sultats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":3,"template":"","meta":{"ba_tool_widget":"variance","ba_tool_family":"risk","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-358","ba_tool","type-ba_tool","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nSimulateur de variance des paris sportifs \u00b7 Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Simulez des milliers de saisons pour voir la variance d\u2019une strat\u00e9gie : s\u00e9ries de pertes, drawdown maximal et probabilit\u00e9 de ruine selon votre cote et votre mise.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/outils\/simulateur-variance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta 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