{"id":12966,"date":"2026-10-28T00:36:22","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T23:36:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/section-paloise-stade-toulousain-a-152-il-mercato-ha-gia-contato-gli-assenti\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T00:36:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T23:36:37","slug":"section-paloise-stade-toulousain-pronostico-2026-11-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/it\/partite\/rugby\/top-14\/section-paloise-stade-toulousain-pronostico-2026-11-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Section Paloise &#8211; Stade Toulousain: a 1,52, il mercato ha gi\u00e0 contato gli assenti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00ab Vorrei continuare a giocare ancora un po&#8217; in club\u2026 \u00bb Anthony Jelonch l&#8217;ha detto luned\u00ec su La D\u00e9p\u00eache, e la Francia l&#8217;ha convocato lo stesso. La sua frase riassume l&#8217;ottava giornata del Top 14, il campionato francese: si gioca dentro la finestra internazionale di novembre, quando le nazionali trattengono la maggior parte degli internazionali e ne rilasciano solo alcuni. Domenica all&#8217;Hameau, Toulouse schierer\u00e0 quello che gli resta. Gli resta molto, ma la finestra ha lasciato dei buchi: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ladepeche.fr\/2026\/10\/26\/stade-toulousain-plus-de-20-joueurs-absents-alexandre-roumat-fait-son-retour-la-bonne-nouvelle-valentin-delpy-13620947.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La D\u00e9p\u00eache conta pi\u00f9 di venti assenti dalla parte di Toulouse<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Vincere ancora, subire troppo<\/h2>\n<p>Toulouse arriva a Pau da leader, con sei vittorie di fila in tutte le competizioni prima della settima giornata e poi un successo per 38-33 contro Perpignan. Quel match si \u00e8 chiuso nel dolore: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lerugbynistere.fr\/news\/avec-une-quasi-victoire-a-toulouse-lusap-essaye-de-grapiller-les-points-qui-lui-ont-manque-les-saisons-passees\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">26 punti subiti negli ultimi venti minuti<\/a>, il bonus offensivo andato in fumo. Due uscite di fila con la difesa in affanno. Contro una squadra che segna in casa, prima o poi si paga.<\/p>\n<h2>Pi\u00f9 di venti assenti, una seconda linea da ricostruire<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;elenco dei malati si legge in un colpo d&#8217;occhio:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Protetti dalla nazionale: Dupont, Ntamack e Cros non dovrebbero raggiungere il B\u00e9arn.<\/li>\n<li>In dubbio: Mauvaka, Gourgues e Brennan. Jelonch, convocato dalla Francia, dovrebbe comunque giocare secondo la stampa locale.<\/li>\n<li>In infermeria: le seconde linee Meafou, Flament e Verg\u00e9, Merkler, Aldegheri (commozione), Mallia (ginocchio), Chocobares e Menoncello, usciti infortunati in Champions Cup; Neti, sospeso dopo il rosso contro Exeter.<\/li>\n<li>Le buone notizie: il ritorno di Roumat e un&#8217;altra buona notizia di nome Delpy. Richardis, concussionato con l&#8217;Agen in Pro D2, dovrebbe saltare la partita.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>La mia lettura sta in una riga: senza Meafou, Flament, Verg\u00e9 n\u00e9 Merkler, la touche di Toulouse si appogger\u00e0 a rimpiazzi, e il maul con loro. Senza Cros, il ruck perde il suo uomo migliore. Penso che la conquista rossa e nera sar\u00e0 discutibile domenica, ed \u00e8 l\u00ec che la Section deve spingere.<\/p>\n<h2>L&#8217;Hameau regge, Brau-Boirie no<\/h2>\n<p>Pau gioca in casa, e l&#8217;Hameau \u00e8 un indirizzo dove la Section non perde: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lequipe.fr\/Rugby\/Actualites\/Seule-equipe-invaincue-cette-saison-a-domicile-en-top-14-les-chiffres-de-la-folle-annee-de-la-section-paloise-au-stade-du-hameau\/1684458\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unica squadra imbattuta in casa nella stagione regolare 2025-26<\/a>, l\u00ec ha battuto di recente Castres (35-26). Lontano dall&#8217;Hameau, un&#8217;altra storia: la sconfitta a Toulon le \u00e8 costata il secondo posto. E la rosa di Pau ha la sua infermeria: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sudouest.fr\/sport\/rugby\/section-paloise\/top-14-la-section-paloise-encore-en-carafe-sur-la-rade-31226224.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Brau-Boirie, infortunato al ginocchio sinistro contro Toulon, sar\u00e0 fuori circa quattro mesi secondo la stampa<\/a>, senza che l&#8217;operazione risulti gi\u00e0 effettuata. E il destino degli internazionali di Pau (Gailleton, Attissogbe, Auradou) \u00e8 ancora da definire: il club non ha pubblicato la lista degli indisponibili.<\/p>\n<h2>A 1,52, il mercato ha gi\u00e0 contato gli assenti<\/h2>\n<p>A 1,52 su Betano marted\u00ec, Pau \u00e8 dato favorito. Il mercato ha letto gli stessi elenchi che ho letto io: la quota \u00e8 gi\u00e0 piena di assenti di Toulouse. La vera domanda di domenica \u00e8 il margine. La linea principale, Pau -5,5 punti, era a 1,90 su 1xbet luned\u00ec.<\/p>\n<p>Do a Pau il 54% di probabilit\u00e0 di coprire -5,5, contro il 49,1% del prezzo di mercato. In pratica serve una vittoria di almeno sei punti: vittoria netta, 22,50 $ netti su 25 $ puntati; vittoria di uno-cinque punti, pareggio o sconfitta, scommessa persa. Il Hameau e una seconda linea di Toulouse da ricostruire: tutto spinge avanti la Section. Il mio dubbio, detto chiaro: senza Brau-Boirie, e contro la profondit\u00e0 della panchina di Toulouse, la vittoria larga non \u00e8 garantita. Appena il sito incrocia la mia probabilit\u00e0 con quella del mercato, il vantaggio si scioglie a 1,90. Resta una convinzione sottile: 0,25 unit\u00e0, cio\u00e8 25 $, la puntata minima.<\/p>\n<p>Il <a href=\"\/it\/strumenti\/calcolatore-kelly\/\">calcolatore di Kelly<\/a> dice la stessa cosa: a questa quota, niente da forzare. Questa scommessa entra nel <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/it\/bilancio\/\">mio bilancio pubblico<\/a>, qualunque cosa accada. 18+. Gioca solo quello che puoi permetterti di perdere.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Toulouse arriva all&#8217;Hameau con pi\u00f9 di venti assenti e gli internazionali protetti, eppure Pau resta a 1,52: il mercato ha gi\u00e0 contato i mancanti. Prendo il handicap di Pau -5,5 punti a 1,90 su 1xbet, con puntata minima.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12967,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostico Section Paloise - Stade Toulousain (Top 14, ottava giornata): Toulouse decimato, Pau favorito a 1,52. Handicap Pau -5,5 a 1,90, puntata minima.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Section Paloise","ba_away_name":"Stade Toulousain","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01 20:05:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54129","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[42,103],"class_list":["post-12966","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby-it","ba_sport-top-14-it"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Section Paloise &#8211; Stade Toulousain: a 1,52, il mercato ha gi\u00e0 contato gli assenti &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostico Section Paloise - Stade Toulousain (Top 14, ottava giornata): Toulouse decimato, Pau favorito a 1,52. 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