{"id":4275,"date":"2026-10-03T12:05:01","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T10:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/bosnia-erzegovina-polonia-la-favorita-senza-il-suo-attaccante\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T23:10:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T21:10:46","slug":"bosnia-erzegovina-polonia-pronostico-2026-10-05","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/it\/partite\/calcio\/nations-league\/bosnia-erzegovina-polonia-pronostico-2026-10-05\/","title":{"rendered":"Bosnia-Erzegovina \u2013 Polonia: la favorita senza il suo attaccante"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Venerd\u00ec a Varsavia, Lewandowski ha firmato una <a href=\"https:\/\/legia.net\/news\/demolka-na-narodowym-wysokie-zwyciestwo-polski-z-rumunia\/105388\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tripletta nel 6-0<\/a> contro la Romania. Subito dopo, Jan Urban ha confermato che il suo attaccante, fermato dai cartellini, <a href=\"https:\/\/legia.net\/news\/jan-urban-mecz-z-bosnia-kolejnym-krokiem\/105391\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">non giocher\u00e0 luned\u00ec a Zenica<\/a>. La Polonia arriva al Bilino Polje con il 6-0 negli occhi, senza il suo goleador, davanti a <a href=\"https:\/\/reprezentacija.ba\/530615-rasprodate-ulaznice-za-utakmicu-bih-poljska\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">15 600 biglietti venduti<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Un 6-0 da leggere contro dieci<\/h2>\n<p>La Romania ha giocato in dieci dal 22&#8217; di venerd\u00ec, e il punteggio racconta pi\u00f9 la punizione che la distanza tra le due squadre. Il resto della finestra disegna un&#8217;altra Polonia: 0-0 contro questa Bosnia a Varsavia, poi la sconfitta per 3-1 in Svezia. Venerd\u00ec \u00e8 entrato tutto; altrove, la Polonia cerca.<\/p>\n<p>Cosa cambia Lewandowski, a mio modo di vedere: il punto di riferimento in area. Senza di lui, l&#8217;attacco polacco si gioca a terra, e un blocco basso come quello bosniaco chiude l&#8217;asse molto pi\u00f9 facilmente. Venerd\u00ec hanno segnato Zieli\u0144ski e Bednarek, entrambi titolari luned\u00ec; le soluzioni restano, il riferimento avanti no: l&#8217;undici ufficiale manda in campo \u017bukowski da solo avanti, con \u015awiderski e Szyma\u0144ski dietro.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lewandowski, squalificato dopo il secondo giallo, preso contro la Romania; ha lasciato il gruppo sabato ed <a href=\"https:\/\/sport.interia.pl\/pilka-nozna\/reprezentacja-polski\/news-media-potwierdzilo-sie-ws-lewandowskiego-jest-decyzja-po-zaw,nId,23552943\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00e8 rientrato al Chicago Fire<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Benedyczak (polso rotto) e R\u00f3zga (muscolo), assenze annunciate prima della finestra.<\/li>\n<li>Zi\u00f3\u0142kowski, infortunato, fuori dal gruppo.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Una Bosnia imbattuta, gi\u00e0 in lutto per il suo capitano<\/h2>\n<p>Dal lato bosniaco la dinamica \u00e8 opposta: cinque punti e nessuna sconfitta nel girone, l&#8217;1-1 strappato alla Svezia venerd\u00ec al Bilino Polje. Barbarez parla di grande fiducia; la stampa locale chiede prudenza. Venerd\u00ec sera, lo stadio ha soprattutto salutato Edin D\u017eeko, 40 anni e 151 presenze, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goal.com\/en\/lists\/dzeko-leaves-the-national-team-and-leaves-the-whole-of-bosnia-in-tears-farewell-to-the-greatest-of-all-time\/bltf001c818434af168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">acclamato all&#8217;11&#8217; minuto<\/a>, il suo numero, da una curva in piedi. L&#8217;addio \u00e8 finito in parit\u00e0; luned\u00ec arriva la prima grande partita senza di lui, con Demirovi\u0107 e Tabakovi\u0107 in avanti. Al Bilino Polje la Bosnia ha perso una sola volta sulle ultime otto in casa, ma le ultime tre sono finite tutte in parit\u00e0; la Polonia ha vinto solo due delle ultime otto in trasferta, contro Malta e Lituania.<\/p>\n<p>Tre scontri recenti tra le due:<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Data<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Competizione<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Partita<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Risultato<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>25\/09\/2026<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>Polonia \u2013 Bosnia-Erzegovina<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>14\/10\/2020<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>Polonia \u2013 Bosnia-Erzegovina<\/td>\n<td>3-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>07\/09\/2020<\/td>\n<td>Nations League<\/td>\n<td>Bosnia-Erzegovina \u2013 Polonia<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Una puntata presa prima che il mercato reagisse<\/h2>\n<p>Il mercato \u00e8 girato verso la Bosnia e il pareggio: la Polonia \u00e8 slittata da 2,27 a 2,37 al miglior prezzo, la Bosnia si \u00e8 stretta da 3,40 a 3,20 su 10BET e la doppia chance Bosnia o pareggio ormai paga solo 1,63 su Unibet, contro l&#8217;1,75 preso sabato. A 1,75, il mercato dava il 57,1 % all&#8217;idea che la Bosnia non perde. Io la vedo sempre al 62 %.<\/p>\n<h2>Bosnia o pareggio a 1,75<\/h2>\n<p>Cosa fa vincere questa scommessa: un blocco bosniaco che chiude l&#8217;asse e una Polonia senza punto di riferimento che si innervosisce davanti; una partita che si chiude finisce in parit\u00e0, e il pareggio \u00e8 gi\u00e0 dentro la scommessa. Cosa la fa perdere: una serata polacca come quella di venerd\u00ec, quando entra tutto anche senza il capo. Posta: 1,25 unit\u00e0, 125 $, sulla doppia chance a 1,75 su 888Sport. Bosnia o pareggio al termine dei tempi regolamentari: +93,75 $. Vittoria polacca: -125 $.<\/p>\n<p>Il <a href=\"\/it\/strumenti\/calcolatore-kelly\/\">calcolatore di Kelly<\/a> ricalcola le poste in unit\u00e0, e il <a href=\"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/it\/bilancio\/\">bilancio pubblico<\/a> tiene i miei pronostici, vinti o persi. 18+, punta solo quello che puoi perdere.<\/p>\n<h2>Il rigore di Ba\u0161i\u0107 all&#8217;84&#8217;<\/h2>\n<p>La Bosnia-Erzegovina ha battuto la Polonia 1-0 al Bilino Polje, su un rigore di Ivan Ba\u0161i\u0107 all&#8217;84&#8217;. La partita \u00e8 andata come l&#8217;avevo letta: senza Lewandowski, la Polonia ha girato la palla davanti a un blocco chiuso senza mai trovare l&#8217;asse, e Zenica ha aspettato il fallo in area. La Bosnia, l&#8217;unica ancora imbattuta del girone, sale al secondo posto dietro la Svezia.<\/p>\n<p>La mia scommessa, Bosnia o pareggio a 1,75, \u00e8 vinta, e il pareggio non \u00e8 servito nemmeno: 1,25 unit\u00e0, 93,75 $, la puntata pi\u00f9 alta della mia finestra, pagata come le altre. La Polonia riparte con il ricordo del 6-0 e una sola vittoria su quattro partite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Bosnia ha battuto la Polonia 1-0 su un rigore di Ba\u0161i\u0107 all\u201984\u2019. La mia scommessa a Bosnia o pareggio a 1,75 \u00e8 vinta, 1,25 unit\u00e0, la pi\u00f9 alta della finestra.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5272,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostico Bosnia-Erzegovina \u2013 Polonia: Lewandowski rientrato a Chicago, la Bosnia imbattuta a Zenica. Confermo Bosnia o pareggio a 1,75, 1,25 unit\u00e0.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Bosnia-Erzegovina","ba_away_name":"Polonia","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-05 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Stadion Bilino Polje","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528948","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[22,48],"class_list":["post-4275","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-calcio-it","ba_sport-nations-league-it"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bosnia-Erzegovina \u2013 Polonia: la favorita senza il suo attaccante &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostico Bosnia-Erzegovina \u2013 Polonia: Lewandowski rientrato a Chicago, la Bosnia imbattuta a Zenica. 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