Everton knocked Newcastle out of the cup on Thursday, and meet them again on Monday in the league

On Thursday, Everton knocked Newcastle out of the League Cup, 3-1 on their own ground. On Monday the rematch goes to St James’ Park, four days later, and for real points: twelfth against fourteenth, 11 points against 10. Four days, a different ground, a different competition: the rematch starts from zero.

Newcastle can win, never twice in a row

In the league, Newcastle live in alternation: 2-0 at Crystal Palace on 25 October, 0-1 against Aston Villa before that, and a 1-4 taken at Coventry earlier in the month. Two wins since 19 September, never back to back. Matthias Jaissle wants to turn the frustration of the cup exit into motivation for Monday. The 2-0 at Palace, a week ago, is the reminder of what this team can do on its day.

One league win since September, but Everton have their confidence back

On Everton’s side, the league has been a crossing: 0-2 against Chelsea, 0-2 at Arsenal, a 2-2 at Hull for the only point of the last three games. One win since the 1-0 over Ipswich on 19 September. Thursday’s 3-1 still gave the dressing room back what the league was refusing them: the certainty that they can beat this team. Four days later, they arrive at St James’ Park with arguments.

Four of the last five meetings for Everton, two of them at St James’ Park

Everton’s last two league visits to St James’ Park ended 2-3 last February and 0-1 in May 2025. Thursday only stretched the trend; on Monday, Newcastle play their rematch on home ground.

Livramento and Jaouen out, Branthwaite on the way back

The day before the game, the injury round-up:

• Livramento (knee) and Jaouen (muscle) are out on the Newcastle side;
• Fernandez-Pardo (illness) and Miley (muscle) stay doubtful, and Miley has missed the last two games;
• Osula (ankle) looks very unlikely;
• Branthwaite, under concussion protocol, has missed the last two games: his return on Monday is expected, not guaranteed;
• Grealish, left out of the cup squad for a disciplinary matter, stays doubtful;
• the Premier League projects a rested Joelinton and a start for Elanga, who played a half on Thursday: hypotheses, not a team sheet.

Everton or draw at 1.654: Thursday’s 3-1 does not settle Monday

I give Everton or the draw 62 chances in 100, barely above the market’s 59. The cup put Everton in confident mood, but Newcastle are at home, come off a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace, and Everton have not won in the league since 19 September: the double chance is mostly worth the draw it covers. At 1.654 with 1xbet, the best price recorded on Tuesday, my edge melts once blended with the market probability: minimum stake, 0.25 units, and the public record will keep the trace.

The bet reads quickly: Everton win or draw, won, $16.35 profit on a $25 stake; Newcastle win, lost, $25 down. Regular time, and 18+: only bet what you can afford to lose.