Ipswich v Nottingham Forest: the favourites sit 19th, and they travel

Portman Road will be full: Gary O’Neil expects “30,000 fans” behind his side on Friday, and he calls the visit of Forest “our toughest game so far”. Tenth (9 points) hosts nineteenth (5 points), and it is the visitors who start as favourites.

A favourite on three straight defeats

Five points, one win, three straight defeats: the record fits on one line. The problem is finishing: against Arsenal on Sunday, despite Delap, Wood and Murillo, the goal never came. The bookmakers still install Forest as favourites for this trip, at 2.32 with 1xbet in Thursday morning’s reading, down from 2.39 at the open: for a week now, the money has gone with the visitors. The market’s bet is simple: Oliver Glasner’s squad is better than its table position.

Lukic out, Forest nearly whole again

• Sasa Lukic (groin) is out: O’Neil had expected him back this week, but the club has ruled him out of the match with a groin injury, a return targeted early next week before Hull;
• Morgan Gibbs-White has trained the entire week and Milenkovic is ready to start: October’s two absentees come back together;
• Igor Jesus (calf) and Savona (knee) remain the only two players outside the Forest squad;
• Jack Taylor (knee) has still not played a minute this season for Ipswich, and the club has said nothing more.

Without Lukic, Ipswich’s two-man midfield rebuilds around Palacios, paired with Florentino Luis. At the other end, Glasner starts Milenkovic in the middle of the back three and Gibbs-White between the lines, and Liam Delap, the former Ipswich striker, leads the line at Portman Road with a clear brief: “Forest desperately need him to score”, says the local press. O’Neil knows the danger: Forest are “always hard to break down” and “dangerous in transition”.

What the last five games say

Two teams that score in almost every game, and only one that wins. Ipswich beat Fulham here and pushed City; Forest have one goal in three outings. Recent history smiles on Forest: 4-2 at Portman Road in March 2025, 1-0 at home in November 2024.

My bet: Ipswich or the draw, small stake

The draw protects me from the scenario Forest have promised for three weeks: creating without converting. I take Ipswich or the draw at 1.69 with 1xbet, the price of my Wednesday take; by Thursday morning the same double chance traded at 1.68, a reading taken before Lukic was ruled out: the move towards Forest may not be over. I give this double chance 61 per cent, against the 58 the price implies, and the gap is so small the stake stays at the floor: 0.25 units, $25. Ipswich win or draw: +$17.18 net. Forest win: the $25 is gone.

Lukic’s absence weakens the pick, I won’t hide it: Ipswich lose the midfielder who restarts every move, and the Forest scenario looks more likely than it did when I placed the bet. I don’t re-size a stake the night before a game, and this one has been at the floor since Wednesday. Why the double chance rather than a straight home win: at over 3.30 it would pay better, but it leaves me exposed if Forest rediscover their finishing. The stake comes from the staking calculator; this pick goes on my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

1-1: Forest run their script one more time, and the draw pays my double chance

Williams put Forest in front off a Muñoz cross (13th minute), Enciso answered (41st), and nobody scored again: 1-1 in front of 29,198, where Gary O’Neil had called for 30,000. The clearest chance stayed with Forest, Callum Hudson-Odoi dragging his shot wide on 89 minutes: a fourth straight game without a win for the market’s favourite. The live text keeps the whole night.

My Ipswich or draw double chance at 1.69 with 1xbet wins: $17.18 net on the minimum $25 stake. The draw did exactly what I asked of it, covering a Forest side that create without finishing. The price barely moved between my take and the close.