Olympiacos – Fenerbahce: the favourite comes off two overtimes, the visitors arrive at full strength

Olympiacos come off two overtime wins, 102-97 in Valencia and 105-100 in Barcelona, with more than 100 points scored each time. Ten extra minutes on the legs across two nights, a squad wearing thin, and opposite them a Fenerbahce at full strength: that is the match.

The market has already picked a side: Fenerbahce traded at 2.90 on the open and sit at 2.35 on Thursday evening. More surprising: Olympiacos hardened through the day, their win shortening from 1.78 to 1.70 and the main handicap from -2.5 to -3, even as their absences were being confirmed.

Three teams at 5-1, including these two

Three clubs share the top of the standings at 5-1: Panathinaikos, Fenerbahce on +54, Olympiacos on +40. The only Greek defeat came in Bologna in round three; Fenerbahce fell at Panathinaikos, then saw off Zalgiris and Partizan.

Fournier and Dorsey out, Montero in the balance

Thursday’s official report settled what the announcement left open: Evan Fournier (11.3 points a game) and Tyler Dorsey, dropped by the club since Barcelona, are ruled out for Friday, the club has confirmed. At the pre-game press conference, Bartzokas put it plainly: “We are short-handed in the backcourt.”

Montero, a sprained right ankle and a ligament issue in his left knee, has not returned to practice: a decision at the last minute. Milutinov, whose back kept him out of round six, appears on no absence list and his coach counts him among the available.

Opposite them, Fenerbahce have filed no report: the squad was complete last round, and Shane Larkin made his season debut in round five.

The record smiles on the Greeks, narrowly

Over the last two meetings Olympiacos had the last word, and last season each side won at home:

Since 2000 the overall record between the clubs reads 20-19 to Olympiacos. Nothing decisive, but a backdrop: these teams know each other by heart.

I’m taking Fenerbahce +2.5 at 2.05

At BetMGM, Fenerbahce +2.5 still trades at 2.05: my entry price, to the cent. The main line has moved to -3, where Fenerbahce +3 pays only 1.91: the market gives back half a point and charges for it. I stay at 54 % on my line; the value is still there, in the line rather than the straight win.

Fenerbahce win, or lose by one or two points: the bet wins $131.25. A defeat by three points or more: $125 lost. Overtime included. The stake is 1.25 units: the gap between my read and the market’s is clear, the Kelly logic does the rest, and my public record will follow this bet. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

61-64: Fenerbahce finally get their first road win

A full-strength Fenerbahce win 61-64 in Piraeus, where they had taken nothing this season. The Olympiacos of back-to-back overtimes could not keep it going: after 102 points in Valencia and 105 in Barcelona, without Fournier and Dorsey, the Greek attack falls back to 61 at home.

My Fenerbahce +2.5 at 2.05 with BetMGM never needed the line: a clean three-point win, five and a half to spare. Taken at 2.05, the bet closed at 1.88, the market following the same way through the evening. $131.25 net on a $125 stake, 1.25 units on the public record.