Efes have already answered Barcelona; Madrid still face the rebounding question

Forty-ninth meeting between the two clubs in the EuroLeague, and Pablo Laso watches this one from the other bench. The coach who ran Real Madrid from 2011 to 2022 and won two EuroLeague titles there, in 2015 and 2018, hosts his old club on Tuesday; Madrid lead the series 31-17 since 2002. Both teams lost their opener and are still chasing a first win.

Efes lose four men, James keeps scoring

Four names are missing for Efes: Cordinier (knee surgery in May), Papagiannis (knee), Burak Can Yildizli and David Mutaf. The rest of the group keeps rolling. Mike James has topped 13 points in seven of his last eight games, Loyd in five of the last six, and Kai Jones has pulled down at least five rebounds in four of his last five outings.

On Sunday, in the Turkish league opener, Efes saw off Beşiktaş 95-81, three days after the loss in Barcelona. Saric added 16 points after his 17 at the Palau, and Laso praised the open shots his side created and its defensive control, without calling it a perfect game.

Five points in the last five minutes in Dubai

Real lost 77-78 in Dubai while leading by seven with five minutes to go: five points from there, and not a single basket in the last three minutes. Dubai controlled the boards 45-30, with 18 offensive rebounds to nine. A team that hands the ball back after every miss cannot run, and Madrid did not run.

Walter Tavares played that game and nothing has been announced about him missing Tuesday. Against a shortened Istanbul rotation, his duel under the rim can decide the evening.

Garuba out, three files to follow at Real

• Efes: Cordinier (knee, surgery in May), Papagiannis (knee), Burak Can Yildizli and David Mutaf.
• Real: Garuba (Achilles tendon) ruled out.
• Llull, Okeke and Shulga: flagged as questionable by a single source, with nothing from the club.

Two crowded injury lists, in different places: Efes lose rotation players, Real lose a defender just as rebounding is their priority repair job. Home court and the form of James weigh a little more now.

At 1.87, the bet keeps its one-unit stake

My pick went in on Sunday: Anadolu Efes to win at 1.87 with Betano, for 1 unit ($100). At that price you need to be right 53.5 per cent of the time to break even. Since then the best price on Efes has eased to 1.85 with BetMGM and the price on Real has lengthened to 2.04 with 1xbet on Monday: the market has leaned slightly towards Istanbul, without tipping over.

My conviction stays moderate and the stake says so: Efes lose pieces of their rotation, but Real lose Garuba and have not repaired their rebounding since Dubai. The Kelly calculator lets you test your own estimate, and this bet will stay in my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

94-84: Efes win the game, not the boards

Efes beat Real Madrid 94-84 in Istanbul for a first EuroLeague win. The game was decided by the ball: Madrid gave away 21 possessions on turnovers, Efes pocketed 11 steals, and a twelve-point half-time lead held to the end, even when Madrid came back within four in the final minute. The boards stayed Madrid’s, 41 to 26: the lever I was looking for at Real existed, and it was not enough. Tavares held his rim; Efes owned the ball.

Efes to win at 1.87 with Betano: pick won, $87 for one unit. The best price on Efes closed at 1.98 with BetMGM at tip-off: the market kept climbing after me, and the bet locked in on Sunday keeps its value. The gain goes to the public record.