Liverpool vs Brighton: the third-placed side at Anfield, three days after Jablonec

The league table runs the other way: Liverpool are fifth on 12 points, Brighton third on 16, a goal difference of +18 against the Reds’ +1. The game, scheduled for Saturday, was moved to Sunday after Brighton qualified for the Conference League. Anfield hosts the third-placed side in the league, and it is not Liverpool.

Both teams win almost everywhere. Brighton beat Crystal Palace 5-0, Arsenal 3-0, Sunderland 2-0, Kauno Žalgiris 4-0; on Thursday night they let a 0-0 slip away at Jablonec. Liverpool beat Villarreal 4-3, Brentford 2-1, Lask 6-3; the 0-3 against Manchester City on 11 October remains the exception in the run.

Both sides win everywhere, but the legs differ

Liverpool played Villarreal at Anfield on Tuesday; Brighton played in Czechia on Thursday. Five days of rest on one side, three and a trip on the other. Andoni Iraola knows it: in his press conference he pointed out that Liverpool have not won any of their three home league games this season, and that his team will have to “play at their very best”. A Conference League side travelling to Anfield three days later: that is the mechanism of this match, before any names.

The men who run both blocks

For Brighton, Kostoulas is on three goals and two assists over the run. For Liverpool, Isak already has five goals, and Wirtz twenty chances created. Both coaches have the players to win this match high up the pitch; what both lack are complete wings.

Two full treatment rooms, two different barrels

• Liverpool, out: Bradley, Ekitike, Frimpong and Leoni, per the club’s official list, along with Nallo.
• Liverpool: Szoboszlai will miss the weekend; Barcola is available, Muñoz remains doubtful, and Gravenberch returns from suspension.
• Brighton, out: Ferguson, Tzimas, Mitoma and Yohanna.
• Brighton, doubts: Struijk will be assessed before the game; Wieffer, Minteh and Azeez are close to a return.

Draw or Brighton at 1.76: 0.5 units

Liverpool remain favourites at 2.18, a price drifted from the opening 2.11, and Brighton are 3.40: since I took my bet, the market has not switched sides. I split the outcomes like this: 40% for Liverpool, 27% for the draw, 33% for Brighton. Draw or Brighton makes 60%; my double chance is locked at 1.76 with 1xbet, and it prices at 1.78 on Friday. The stake: 0.5 units, $50. Brighton win or draw: +$37.90. Liverpool win: -$50. Anfield and Brighton’s legs keep me from going higher; form and the table keep me from staying away.

The staking method is in the Kelly calculator, and this bet joins my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

2-0: the first home league win

Liverpool had not won any of their first three home league games at Anfield; the fourth one landed, 2-0, against the side sitting third. Brighton did not score, and the draw that the double chance also accepted never happened.

The bet loses: draw or Brighton at 1.76, 0.5 units, minus $50. Form and the table pushed me toward Brighton; Anfield and the heavy legs from the trip to Czechia weighed heavier.