Rennes vs Strasbourg: eight home games unbeaten, a visitor without a win since 6 September

On Thursday night Rennes ground out a 2-2 draw at Juventus; on Sunday they host Strasbourg with three days of recovery. Their visitors have not played since 17 October: a full week to prepare the trip. It is the only real imbalance in this fixture, and the market has already priced it in.

A ground that never loses

Rennes have not lost a home league game at Roazhon Park in eight games: six wins, two draws. This season they have three wins and a draw from four home games, including the 4-1 handed to Auxerre on 11 October, and they own the best attack in the division, 15 goals. Last season Strasbourg lost 4-1 there, then 3-0 in the return.

Sixth on 13 points, Rennes still carry two defeats in their last three league games and nine goals conceded over that run. The form is patchy; the ground is the constant.

Strasbourg score, and concede

Fourteenth on 7 points, Strasbourg have not won in the league since the 6-2 at Troyes on 6 September. Three straight defeats, seven goals conceded, one point from four games: the slump is plain. Their last two away trips ended in the same defeat, 2-1 at Nice then 2-1 at Paris FC.

One thread of hope survives in the numbers: Strasbourg matches have produced 27 goals, just behind the 29 of Rennes games. These are the two most open teams in the division, and the goals line on the market shows it.

The last five matches of each side, all competitions:

Lepaul ruled out, the unknown settled

The medical picture has moved since the draw in Turin, in both camps:

• Estéban Lepaul, seven goals this season, went off injured against Paris FC just after his penalty hat-trick: the checks on his ankle were reassuring, and his absence in Turin was precautionary; on Sunday, he is out.
• For Strasbourg, Panichelli (knee) is not expected back before December, Nanasi remains out and F. Baldé is out as well; captain Ismaël Doukouré also misses this trip.
• The one new name comes up front: Martial Godo, out since the start of the season, returns to the squad without having played a single minute, and without starting.
• The official elevens: Rennes in a 5-3-2, Samba in goal; Frankowski, Ait Boudlal, Cresswell, Rouault and Nagida across the back; Camara, Rongier and Szymański in midfield; Dia and Tamari up front. Strasbourg in a 4-2-3-1: Jörgensen in goal; Antwi, Mitchell, Coulibaly and Oso at the back; Essugo and Diogo Sousa in midfield; Yassine, Reyna and Diop behind lone striker Harder.

Franck Haise will ration the legs fresh from Turin; Hugo Oliveira has had a week to drill his block. The freshness gap, I expect it to bite after the hour, not in the first thirty minutes; Rennes need to have made the difference by then.

The price of the market

Rennes to win is 1.83 at 1xbet on Friday evening, from an opening 1.737: the favourite keeps drifting, and I took him at 1.787 on Thursday. Strasbourg have tightened, from 4.36 to 4.215 at 1xbet, the draw holds at 4.50 at Bet365, and the main goals line, 3.25, is 1.93 for the over at Unibet. At 1.83, the market gives Rennes the win a little more than half the time. Since Thursday the market has tilted slightly towards Strasbourg: my margin, thin already, has narrowed with it.

My bet: Rennes, minimum stake

I took Rennes to win at 1.787 at 1xbet on Thursday, with 0.25 units, $25. I make it 57% for Rennes where the odds imply 54%: three points of difference, too thin for a full stake, and the Kelly calculator lands on the minimum. If Rennes win, the bet pays $19.68 net; a draw or a Strasbourg win costs $25.

I say it plainly: this is a minimum-stake match, because the market has read it well. Without Lepaul, Rennes lose their seven-goal striker; if Turin left heavy legs, my three points are worth nothing. The result joins the public record like every other. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

3-0: the house still does not lose

Roazhon Park has still not seen Rennes fold: a ninth home league match without defeat. Strasbourg have not won since the 6-2 at Troyes on 6 September; this 3-0 stretches their drift. The doubt I flagged over the Turin legs never weighed: the house won without Lepaul.

Won: Rennes at 1.787, the minimum stake of 0.25 units, so +$19.67 on the public record. The close had drifted out to 1.86: the market was doubting Rennes at the end, and the score proved that doubt wrong.