Fenerbahçe v Bayern: can Voigtmann’s composure survive Istanbul?

Two teams at 1-0, and an eve that mostly moved injury lists and prices. Bayern get their three round-one absentees back, and the price of their win has melted since Sunday. My pick stayed where it was recorded: 6.00.

Fener won without a shooting touch, and without Larkin

The 78-68 over Virtus was built on defence: three three-pointers from twenty-one attempts, a lack of energy Jasikevičius called out afterwards, and a defensive scheme changed mid-game. Braxton Key added 11 points and 10 rebounds. Larkin did not play that night and remains “day to day”; the club still named him in Sunday’s domestic squad.

Sofia’s absentees are back

• Bayern: Baldwin, Giffey and Washington Jr., all three out in round one, played in Saturday’s league game.
• Bayern: Kilian Fischer remains questionable.
• Fenerbahçe: Larkin “day to day”, held out of round one but named in Sunday’s squad.
• Fenerbahçe: Bingham Jr. questionable according to one source, ruled out according to another, with nothing official.

Baldwin, sixth in assists in last season’s EuroLeague at 5.5 per game, returns just as the Sofia win had been earned without him: 86-84, on Voigtmann’s late three after an eighteen-point lead melted in the fourth quarter. Obst finished with 19 points, Thiemann with 15 and 7 rebounds. Bayern survived Sofia on held breath; they arrive in Istanbul with air to breathe.

Fifteen wins to three, and one April precedent

The head-to-head is lopsided: fifteen wins to three for Fenerbahçe in the EuroLeague. Last season each side won at home, and Munich snapped a run of eight straight defeats in this fixture with an 85-76 home win in early April. With nine new signings on the Turkish side this summer, the historical gap weighs less than the raw number.

Taken at 6.00, the pick watches the window close

My pick is in: Bayern to win at 6.00 with 888Sport, 0.5 units ($50), on my estimate of a 20 per cent chance of a Munich win. At 6.00 you need to win one time in six to break even. On Monday the best price had come down to 5.52 with 1xbet: the bar rises to 18.1 per cent, and the edge has halved.

I keep the original stake, the size of an outsider’s bet: the Bavarian returns explain part of the move, and Fenerbahçe remain favourites at home. The Kelly calculator shows what a price like this weighs in a bankroll, and this bet will stay in my public record even if it loses. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

100-76: the window closed in ten minutes

Fenerbahçe crushed Bayern 100-76 in Istanbul. The game lasted ten minutes: a 31-15 first quarter, 39 of 40 minutes in front, and a lead that peaked at 28. The Bavarian returns I read as a market signal did play, Baldwin scoring 13, and Bayern chased the scoreboard all evening. Perimeter shooting settled it: 15 threes from 30 for Fener, 7 from 27 for Munich, plus the boards 34-27.

Bayern to win at 6.00 with 888Sport: pick lost, half a unit of stake, $50. The price kept sliding after me, from 5.52 on Monday to 4.20 with 888Sport at the close: the market read this match better than I did, my 20 per cent was too generous. The half-unit lost goes to the public record.