Ballon d’Or 2026: Mbappé, Yamal or Kane, an open verdict in London tonight

After the double that handed the Clásico to Real Madrid (2-1), Kylian Mbappé came across the comedian Redouane Bougheraba. In a video released by DAZN, Bougheraba asks him “demain, tu l’as ?” (“tomorrow, you’ve got it?”) The striker answers with a nod. The clip is doing the rounds on social media, and part of the public already reads it as a confession.

The vote is already in. One hundred journalists, one from each of the top 100 FIFA nations, ranked their top ten among thirty nominees, fifteen points for first place down to one for tenth, covering the season from 3 August 2025 to 19 July 2026. The result comes out tonight at the London Palladium, the first ceremony outside Paris, and the winner’s name should be known around 11pm in Paris. Pascal Ferré, the trophy’s former director, dismissed the nod theory on RMC: “Since 2024, the winners are no longer told their fate before the ceremony, and they are all treated the same.”

Three strong candidacies, no designated winner

Kylian Mbappé finished top scorer in all three competitions he entered: ten goals at the World Cup, fifteen in the Champions League, twenty-five in La Liga, becoming the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer (22 goals). He won nothing with his club. Harry Kane, the bookmakers’ favourite, racked up 73 goals in all competitions and three German trophies, then stopped in the semi-finals of the Champions League and of the World Cup. Lamine Yamal, a world champion at 19, added La Liga and the Copa del Rey; he scored once at the World Cup.

The CIES puts Yamal first, Mbappé sixth

The CIES Football Observatory, which measures performances over twelve months through eight game domains, the quality of matches and results, published its ranking on Monday morning: Lamine Yamal first, Michael Olise second, Harry Kane third, Lionel Messi fourth, Désiré Doué fifth, Kylian Mbappé sixth. Ousmane Dembélé, the 2025 winner, sits 27th. The statistical measure and the market are not watching the same season.

A French debate raising its voice

On the Canal Football Club set, Bertrand Latour took aim at Mbappé: “if you hand it to him, it’s the Ballon d’Or of shame”. Jean-Pierre Papin would rather see Harry Kane lift the trophy. The same evening, Nasser al-Khelaïfi is still torn between the Parc des Princes, where PSG host Lyon, and London, according to Le Parisien.

For the bettor, the lesson travels beyond the trophy: two serious methods rank the same players in two different orders, and the market itself splits its favour between Kane and Yamal.