Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: Sage fights for his job, De Zerbi counts his absentees

Crystal Palace are living their worst run of the season: 0-2 at home to Newcastle on Saturday, 0-5 at Brighton the week before, seventeenth on 7 points, 9 goals scored, 19 conceded. The only breath of fresh air came in the League Cup, won 1-0 at Fulham on Wednesday. On Tuesday, The Guardian wrote that Pierre Sage, appointed this summer, was living on borrowed time and that a defeat at Tottenham could cost him his job (The Guardian). Across London, Tottenham have just beaten Coventry 3-1 and Chelsea 2-0 in the league, and have not played in midweek.

Two wins that change the look of Spurs

Fourteenth on 9 points, Roberto De Zerbi’s side remain blunt in front of goal, 8 goals in eight matches, but they have found a state of mind: 2-0 at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, without conceding. Dejan Kulusevski played again on 18 October after 526 days out, and it is Omar Marmoush who carries the threat, twelve shots and one goal to his name, despite a calf being managed that De Zerbi plays down (squad state).

Counting the absentees, waiting on Maddison

• Xavi Simons (knee) and Wilson Odobert (operated on) are long-term absentees; Savio (muscle) is out for several more weeks and Rodrigo Bentancur is suspended.
• James Maddison, who came off injured against Chelsea with a groin problem, will be assessed before the game; Destiny Udogie (knee) and Tosin Adarabioyo (calf) are doubtful.
• Lucas Bergvall, Pedro Porro and Mykhailo Mudryk are targeting a Saturday return according to the English reports, with no guarantee; the pre-match press conferences have not been held yet (injury reports).

Palace are chasing their own legs

The Eagles’ calendar is the real problem: Newcastle on Saturday, Fulham in the cup on Wednesday, Tottenham on Saturday, plus a trip to Beşiktaş in the Europa League the week before. Three matches in eight days, against a team that has had a whole week to prepare (Palace’s recent run). Axel Disasi is back from suspension and Jean-Philippe Mateta has returned to the bench, but Chadi Riad, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Quinten Timber remain out, while Dean Henderson (foot) and Jorgen Strand Larsen, who came off against Beşiktaş, are doubtful.

I expect a Palace side sitting deep, giving up the ball and hunting the transition: it is the only way for a team on minus ten to hold, with heavy legs. Tottenham’s 8 goals in eight matches promise a tight game rather than a goalfest.

Recent history says be careful

Of the last five meetings, Palace have won three, including the last two visits to Tottenham: 1-3 in March, 0-2 in May 2025. A Spurs handicap would need them to kill the game off, and their finishing does not suggest it. The straight win looks like the cleanest read, on top of Palace’s recent record in this stadium.

My bet: Spurs to win, minimum stake

The price has moved from 1.67 at the open to 1.58 at 1xbet: the market has hardened towards Tottenham, and rightly so. At 1.58 it gives them a little under two chances in three; I am at 65%, the gap to the best price does not exceed three points, and once weighed against the market price, almost nothing is left of that edge. Hence the minimum stake: 0.25 units ($25), honestly, without a clear edge. Tottenham win in the 90 minutes: won (+$14.53 for $25 staked). A draw or a Crystal Palace win: lost (-$25). The stake maths works as always through the Kelly calculator, and this bet will go on the public record, won or lost. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.