Liverpool vs Arsenal: second place arrives at Anfield missing Saka and Saliba

Eight rounds in, 21 points against 15, second against fifth: on the Premier League table, Arsenal travel to Anfield on Sunday with a comfortable cushion. The market sees a tight game. Liverpool have shortened from 3.33 to 3.10 since the odds opened, Arsenal have drifted to 2.50, and the Liverpool or draw double chance has come down from 1.71 to 1.62: the prices and the London treatment room are telling the same story.

Saka and Saliba miss out, the rest eases

Tuesday took Arsenal out of the Carabao Cup against Fleetwood Town, a League Two side, after nine changes to the team. Gyökeres had equalised, Dowman saw red. A shootout defeat matters less than what it left in the legs and on Sunday’s teamsheet.

• Saka (thigh) and Saliba (back) remain the two real absentees: Saka’s new scan is reassuring, a return before the break seems possible, but not for Sunday; Saliba is not expected before 25 November;
• Dowman banned for three matches, Sunday included, after his appeal was rejected;
• Better news elsewhere: Rice, Calafiori and Tzolis all trained on Friday and will be available if all is well on Saturday, according to Arteta; only Madueke (ankle) stays in the balance, a decision after Saturday’s session.

Arteta kept Raya, Gabriel and Eze on the bench on Tuesday: several regulars will arrive at Anfield fresh, and the squad is deeper than the casualty list suggests. Timber, Zubimendi, Havertz and Gyökeres all played.

Anfield rolls on, the rotation breaks nothing

On Wednesday, Liverpool beat Chelsea on penalties for their third home game in a row, after Villarreal and then Brighton. Iraola made seven changes, but Van Dijk and Araujo started, and Wirtz, who took a knock on the ankle against Brighton, came on in the 58th minute; Isak began on the bench. Iraola wants to close the run of four home fixtures with one more good performance.

Liverpool have their own absentees: Bradley, Ekitike, Leoni and Nallo are unavailable and Frimpong is not expected back before the break. Szoboszlai (muscle) and Munoz (knee) “have a chance” of making Sunday according to Iraola, who does not yet know whether they will be involved: substitutes at best.

The price has not moved since Saturday

The odds have stayed put: Arsenal remain favourites at 2.50 with Bwin, two wins in five for the market. Liverpool trade at 3.10, the draw at 3.60. Recent meetings point to a tight game: 0-0 at the Emirates in January, 1-0 to Liverpool in August 2025, 2-2 in May 2025. Three of the last four league meetings have ended level. Rice and Calafiori’s probable returns have not moved the price.

My bet: Liverpool or draw, 0.25 units

I take the Liverpool or draw double chance at 1.62 with 1xbet. I make it 64%, against 61.6% implied by the price: the edge is there, but thin, and Arsenal’s treatment room has emptied out over the last two days, and the stake in units shows it: 0.25 units, $25, the minimum. Liverpool win or draw: +$15.60. Arsenal win: -$25. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

The winning script is still the one these meetings keep writing: a tight game, Arsenal without Saka and Saliba creating less in the final third, and Anfield pushing. The bet loses if the players rested on Tuesday, Raya and Gabriel first, hold firm and Gyökeres or Havertz finds a way through. This Liverpool or draw goes into my public record.