Hapoel Tel Aviv host in Sofia, Real Madrid come from Istanbul

Hapoel Tel Aviv opened their season with a two-point defeat against Bayern Munich, 84-86, then won in Belgrade on Tuesday, 80-81. Real Madrid have lost both of their trips: 78-77 in Dubai, 94-84 in Istanbul on Tuesday, with 21 turnovers. On Thursday in Sofia one side hosts, the other lands from a third game in four days, and the price has yet to pick between them.

Hapoel’s “home” is Bulgarian: until EuroLeague allows games back in Israel, the club plays them in Sofia, its base for the season. Round three against Real is listed there on the club’s European calendar.

Tuesday night, only one left with the win

The double week does not treat them alike. Add a national cup game for the Israelis on 26 September (85-67) and the count reads four games in eight days for them, three for Madrid.

Real stand at 0-2, Hapoel at 1-1. Hapoel flew from Belgrade to Sofia on Wednesday and trained there in the evening, two video sessions on Real in their legs; in this league rotations are decided two or three minutes at a time.

Blatt out, Itoudis down to twelve

The injury list tells this game. From Wednesday’s daily report:

• for Hapoel, Tamir Blatt, the point guard signed for €3.9m, is out indefinitely and excluded from the group; Tyler Ennis (Achilles tendon) is out long term; Tomer Ginat (knee), Blayzer and Bourdillon are doubts; Itoudis has only twelve fit players on his EuroLeague sheet;
• Amir Coffey, who missed the opener, stays doubtful: the Israeli press speaks of a muscle injury and a return hoped for within the double week;
• for Madrid, Usman Garuba (cruciate ligaments) is out long term; Sergio Llull and Gabriele Procida, both left in Madrid on Tuesday (Llull has played in the league since), are doubtful; Olivier Sarr and Max Shulga were left out of the 12 by coaching choice.

At Hapoel the ball returns to the same hands: Micic runs the point, Satoransky and Carrington support him, Bryant and Oturu finish the plays. In Istanbul Pedro Martínez started Campazzo, Nick Smith Jr., Pradilla, Deck and Tavares, with 16 points for Campazzo, and their minutes are piling up. The Madrid coach said it in front of the press: “A very hard game awaits us, but in the EuroLeague they all are.”

The winner hesitates, the total drifts

The moneyline has not picked a side: Hapoel 1.874 with 1xbet, Real 2.00 with 888Sport on Wednesday, and seven bookmakers on the game now; the opening barely had two. Real dominated last season’s meetings, including a 102-75; Hapoel’s only win, 76-69, came in the quarter-finals. The market knows that story and still rates the two teams level.

On the total the main line has moved from 175.5 to 176.5 points: the market expects a bit more scoring than when I took my bet, and under 175.5 now pays 2.10 with Unibet. My bet is frozen at its line and at its Sunday price.

My bet: under 175.5 points at 1.90

I take the under, overtime included, at 1.90 with 1xbet, and I give it 55%. The four games these teams have already played produced 170, 155, 178 and 161 points: three of the four under my line, and short rotations and heavy legs still drag the total down. Istanbul’s 178 says the opposite, and Llull, Procida or Coffey could be back on Thursday: hence the small stake.

At 1.90 the market called the line dead centre, about a coin flip either way. The stake is the smallest possible, 0.25 units, $25: the site’s Kelly calculator shows why it stays low. The outcomes: 175 points or fewer, +$22.50 on $25 staked; 176 or more, -$25.

This bet goes on my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

200 points in Sofia, and the line never held

Hapoel Tel Aviv 102, Real Madrid 98. The sum reads 200 points, 24.5 over my line of 175.5. The four games behind my bet topped out at 178: heavy legs weighed nothing, and both attacks scored more than in any of those games. The market had slid its line to 176.5 before tip-off; it was right, by a distance.

My under 175.5 points at 1.90 with 1xbet is lost: -$25, the minimum stake. It goes on my public record as it is. Hapoel move to 2-1, Real to 0-3.