Kopylov vs Gautier: fifteen centimetres of reach against twelve UFC fights

Gautier’s reach beats Kopylov’s by fifteen centimetres: at this level, that is a whole zone one man covers and the other has to cross. This fight opens the main card of UFC 332 on Saturday night at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, and it is the most experienced opponent Gautier has met in the UFC.

Gautier is 24, a Cameroonian based at Manchester Top Team, with a sambo pedigree (African championships silver) and a muay Thai base. He sits at 11-1 as a pro, 5-0 in the UFC: a narrow decision over Pulyaev in January, then a second-round knockout of Ozzy Diaz at UFC 328. On the mic, he called out Israel Adesanya. They handed him Roman Kopylov.

Kopylov, a southpaw from Novosibirsk who trains with Universal Fighters in Makhachkala, is in his twelfth UFC bout, 15-5 as a pro. He is 3-2 over his last five, and the last three have all gone to the judges.

He hits hard and often: 4.54 significant strikes per minute. The problem runs the other way: he eats 5.08, a number that puts him ahead of only 12 per cent of the roster. Gautier absorbs 2.60. One man gives a lot and takes just as much; the other takes almost nothing and hits from further away.

The fight happens at the end of Gautier’s jab

I see the fight staying on the feet: taking Gautier down means getting past 94 per cent takedown defence, and Kopylov is built to strike, not to wrestle. His path is narrow: live at the edge of the southpaw’s range, load the counter at the right moment. The trouble is that Gautier does not need to step into Kopylov’s range to touch him. First round: jab, low kick, step out, repeat. Second round: Kopylov is already choosing between eating shots and taking risks.

Weigh-in done, on to the first round

• The Friday weigh-in went off without a hitch: 184 lb for Gautier, 185 for Kopylov, under the 186 lb limit. The fight goes ahead at middleweight.
• The distance in round one: if Gautier imposes it, Kopylov is left with the counter and nothing else.
• Gautier’s plan B: a sambo base and 100 per cent takedown accuracy mean he can hunt for the ground if the striking is not enough.

At 1.40, the market goes further than I do

At media day, Kopylov played the veteran: 35, the opponent studied, no first-round knockout on the schedule. The market did not follow that talk: on Friday, Bet365 moved Gautier from 1.47 to 1.40 and Kopylov from 2.75 to 3.00. The eighteen-bookmaker average made the same trip, from –201 at the open to –217.

At 1.40, the market gives Gautier a bit more than seven chances in ten; I stay at 68 per cent. The market moves and the pick does not: it lives at 1.47, the price of 28/09.

The UFC rankings tell the opposite story, though: Kopylov 31st at middleweight, Gautier 47th or 48th. The odds ignore the rankings and follow what both men have shown in their recent fights. So does the crowd: 72 per cent of Tapology’s 3,024 votes go to Gautier.

Gautier to win, 0.25 units

My reading has not changed: the reach, the takedown defence, what he absorbs. I still take Gautier to win at 1.47 with Bet365, and the stake stays minimal, 0.25 units, $25. Gautier wins: $11.75 net. Kopylov finds his timing: $25 gone. The full staking method is on the Kelly calculator page, and the pick goes into the public record as it is, small and owned. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Kopylov found his timing

Kopylov did not need a second round. He dropped Gautier once, and Marc Goddard stopped the fight at 3:12 of the first: a TKO. Gautier’s first UFC defeat, and he leaves at 11-2 in pro.

The numbers are stark: Kopylov landed 19 of his 23 significant strikes (83 per cent), Gautier 7 of 30 (23 per cent). The narrow path I saw for the Russian, stay on the edge of range and load the counter at the right moment, he took it from the opening bell. The fifteen centimetres of reach never weighed on the fight.

My pick is lost: $25 down. The market got it wrong with me, Gautier still 1.40 at the walkouts. That gives me nothing back.