Germany vs Serbia: two goals of margin for a team that has never played together

Jürgen Klopp took Jonas Urbig to the press conference on Wednesday. For kicker, the signal reads plainly: the young Bayern goalkeeper makes his senior debut against Serbia on Thursday. Around him, the 25-man squad carries nine players without a single cap, and a team that has to be introduced almost player by player.

A squad turned over, a run to stop

Germany called up 44 players across their two September gatherings; 25 stayed on for Munich, including six kept from the first group (Dahmen, Schlotterbeck, Treu, Engelhardt, Conté, Gnabry) and two recalled as reinforcements, Wirtz and Burkardt. The expected debutants run from El Mala to Keidel. Plenty of new faces for a game Germany play on one point, third in the group.

Wednesday morning brought another blow: Schlotterbeck limped out of training, turning his right ankle in a ball-carrying drill, no contact involved, and went straight for an MRI scan. The scan verdict never came out; the team sheet did: Schlotterbeck does not start, Anton and Thiaw form the axis together, and Urbig makes his debut as expected, with Wirtz, Woltemade and Gnabry all starting. He had only just returned from a left-ankle injury picked up at the World Cup.

• Jamal Musiala (Germany): left the group before the Netherlands game, not recovered (nationalmannschaft.net).
• Kai Havertz (Germany): hamstring injury against the Netherlands.
• Brajan Gruda (Germany): oblique strain.
• Dušan Vlahović (Serbia): out for all four fixtures of the window, announced on 22 September (Mondo).
• Nikola Milenković (Serbia): injured.
• Strahinja Pavlović (Serbia): muscular scare against the Netherlands, return hoped for on 4 October.

Kimmich and ter Stegen are not part of this second group. Klopp is the first Germany coach since Helmut Schön not to win either of his first two matches; after the draw in the Netherlands and the defeat by Greece, a third game without a win would be a negative record nobody has seen (Abendzeitung München).

Serbia without centre-backs, without their fans

Serbia arrive pointless, with five defeats in their last six games and at least two goals conceded in five of them. Paunović has three centre-halves left, Babić, Eraković and Simić, and Gudelj has joined the group; Mimović comes up from the U21s, goalkeeper Rosić has been called up, and Bukinac, Milošević and Nikolić have been released. The official eleven pairs Eraković with Gudelj at the back, keeps Babić in and leaves Simić out; Tadić and Jović start. Tadić, 37, has come out of international retirement, Jović is scoring for AEK, and Paunović promises a fresh start while the Serbian press writes about a crisis.

No organised Serbia fans will travel either: UEFA has banned ticket sales for two away trips after the incidents around an Albanian flag in late 2024, 90,000 euros of fines included.

The head-to-head fits in one line: 1-1 in a friendly in March 2019, and a Serbian 1-0 at the 2010 World Cup.

The winner is priced, the margin is not

Germany have come in from 1.32 to 1.25 over the week, Serbia have drifted from 10.50 to 13.0 with 1xbet at Wednesday’s reading. The margin has barely moved: the main line, Germany -1.75, still sits at 1.825, and Serbia +1.75 holds at 2.025 with Bet365.

Serbia +1.75: the bet wins even with a one-goal defeat

The line splits the stake, half on +1.5, half on +2. Serbia win, draw or lose by one: the bet lands, $25.63 profit on a $25 stake. Lose by two: half the stake comes back. Three or more: all lost. I make that cover 52%, the market prices it at 47.4%.

Two goals of margin for a German group that has never played together and has not won in four games, even against a patched-up Serbian defence, look rich to me. The stake stays at the minimum, 0.25 units ($25): the edge, once my probability is blended with the market’s, is very thin, and only one firm quotes the line. The Kelly calculator breaks stakes down into units, and this pick goes on my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Klopp gets his first win: 2-0

Germany win 2-0 and the coach escapes the record: three games, a draw, a defeat, a win. They move to four points, behind Greece (7) and the Netherlands (5) in Group B. Serbia stay on zero points from three matches and conceded twice again.

My bet, Serbia +1.75 at 2.025 with Bet365, loses half: Germany won by exactly two goals, so the half of the stake on +1.5 is lost and the half on +2 is refunded. $25 staked, $12.50 down. I made the cover 52% against the market’s 47.4%: the two-goal margin, precisely the gap I called rich, settled it.