Bayonne at home to a Stade Français side without an away win: the handicap is the bet

Four rounds, three wins, thirteen points: Bayonne sit fourth and host Stade Français at Jean Dauger on Saturday, with Vincent Blasco Baque refereeing. Paris have not won away yet. The real bet is the handicap.

Coly back at scrum-half, Tuilagi keeps the captaincy

Injured in round one against Toulon (hamstring), Coly returns: Sud Ouest and ICI publish the same probable XV, the Coly-Segonds half-back pairing, Tuilagi as captain and Fischer back in the back row. The official lineups are still not out, so I read that team as a probable one, not a confirmed one.

• Tilloles, a left thigh concern on Tuesday, is expected on the bench;
• Jantjies did fly back from South Africa, after a cancelled flight and a Paris stopover, but only came to greet the squad in civilian clothes: no first minutes announced, he is not on the probable bench;
• the injury list is unchanged: Orabé serving his suspension, Leota (knee) out for two to three weeks, Castillon, Iturria, Cormenier and Alainu’uese still sidelined;
• Iturria, Cormenier and Alainu’uese are hoped back for the Cheetahs on 18 October, Erbinartegaray (concussion) should return to training on Monday.

A Paris side that does not travel

Eighth on nine points, Stade Français beat Perpignan and Lyon at home and lost at Clermont and Bordeaux. Twenty-one points scored per match, thirty for Bayonne. The club still remembers the 35-34 conceded at Jean Dauger on 27 December: Hirigoyen, Delbouis and Kockott call it revenge.

Paul Gustard, extended to 2029, is without Monin, Koffi, Briatte (shoulder, not before November), Alo-Emile (“not ready yet”), McLean, Dakuwaqa, Abadie, Lodjro and Duguivalu. The Macalou file stays unclear: retirement announced then denied, a heavy operation reported, nothing confirmed by the club. He does not play on Saturday.

Bayonne minus 7.5 at 1.90

The winner looks settled: 1.34 with Betano on Friday for Bayonne, shortened from the opening 1.38. Nothing to take at that price. I move to the main handicap, Bayonne −7.5 at 1.90 with 1xbet, a line that has not moved; Paris +7.5 has come in instead, from 1.91 to 1.85. Two of Bayonne’s three wins came by a point and by three: the market knows it, and so do I. I give Bayonne clearing eight points a 51% chance; the price implies 53. No edge: minimum stake, 0.25 units ($25), at a quarter Kelly. Bayonne win by eight or more: +$22.50. By seven or fewer, a draw, or a Paris win: −$25.

This pick joins my public record, whatever the outcome. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Three points again

Bayonne beat Stade Français 35-32. A three-point margin, like the win at Racing 92 the week before: the scenario the market knew came back, and it is what sank the bet. The Bayonne win was readable from afar; the eight-point margin never was.

Bayonne −7.5 at 1.90 with 1xbet is lost: $25 of minimum stake. I wrote that this line gave me no edge; the stake matched that read, and the final score agrees with it.