Lyon vs La Rochelle: three home wins, no fit tighthead left

One point separates them: Lyon sixth on fourteen, La Rochelle seventh on thirteen. On Saturday at Gerland, the table says tight game. The sickbay lists have moved since, and the market followed.

Three home games, three wins

Lyon have built their season at home. The last five matches for both sides:

At home Lyon win; on the road they sink. On Saturday, they are at home.

Nine missing on 2 October, five back since

La Rochelle’s form has an Achilles heel, and Skelton’s is only one of them: in the 2 October update, published before Clermont, nine injured players:

• Bourgarit, hamstrings;
• Danty, knee;
• Skelton, Achilles tendon;
• Seuteni, pectoral;
• Favre (shoulder), Lagivalu (hand), Loustalot (calf), Moala (arm) and Tuifua (thigh).

That update preceded Clermont, and La Rochelle still won that one 38-13, their first attacking bonus of the season. Since then the sickbay has emptied: Favre, Niniashvili, Nowell, McFarland and Boudehent are back, Hastoy is expected back, Seuteni remains a long-term case. The medical joker Tevita Ofa stays for three months; the South African signings Moerat and Kriel are still settling in. The official line-ups arrive with the LNR teamsheet, but the La Rochelle back line arriving at Gerland is no longer the one from 2 October.

At Lyon, the tightheads keep falling

Lyon suffer from the same trouble, right where it hurts: no fit tighthead left. Hoyt (neck) joins Helu, Maalo, Marceline, William and Simmonds on the list, per Le Progrès. The joker signing Nocera, on his first appearance, is expected on the bench; Kaabèche can cover at tighthead. At tighthead, Le Progrès starts Rey where Rugbyrama picks Gallo: the LNR sheet will settle it. The rest of the probable XV is the in-form one, thirteen changes from the Bordeaux game, with Shvangiradze back at number 8, a month after his adductor tear. An improvised front row shows at the first scrum. Lyon’s set piece will hold this handicap, or let it go.

My pick: Lyon -6.5 at 1.90

The market has kept moving: Lyon shortened from an opening 1.45 to 1.36 when the bet was placed, then to 1.286 with Betway on Friday; La Rochelle drifted to 4.05 with 1xbet, and the main handicap line moved from -6.5 to -9.5. The Gerland crowd and Lyon’s home form are in the price now. I keep the line taken on 5 October: Lyon -6.5 at 1.90 with Bet365. Lyon win by seven points or more: the bet lands, $22.50 on a $25 stake. Lyon win by six or fewer, draw or lose: the stake is gone.

I give a seven-point-plus Lyon win 54%; at 1.90 the market makes it a touch better than one in two. Set against the market’s probability, the edge disappears: 0.25 units, $25, minimum stake, and I say so plainly. A patched-up Lyon scrum against a nearly restored La Rochelle back line: this bet lives and dies on the set piece, and I do not see it clearly enough to pay more. Size the stake with the Kelly calculator and follow my picks on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

28-16: Gerland folded inside twenty minutes

La Rochelle won 28-16 at Gerland, with the attacking bonus point. Two tries early on, 14-0 down before the twentieth minute, 21-13 at half-time: Lyon never got back into the game. A first home defeat of the season, a third in a row, and eighth place in the table.

My Lyon -6.5 at 1.90 with Bet365 is lost: the line asked for a seven-point win, and Lyon lost by twelve. The market had moved the line from -6.5 to -9.5 through the week, and took the same wrong turn as I did. The minimum stake, $25, set for want of a clear edge, is gone; the public record shows it.