Clermont – Bordeaux Bègles: UBB only win at home, and they travel on Saturday

Two Top 14 sides that only win in their own stadium. Clermont have taken both their wins at Marcel-Michelin, UBB all three of theirs at home; away, both lose everything. On Saturday it is Bordeaux Bègles who travel, and the market has hardened: Clermont have gone from a 1.57 open to 1.33 with Bet365, UBB now stand at 4.10 with 1xbet. My bet, taken on Tuesday at 1.55 with Betano, stays where it is.

Marcel-Michelin holds, the road breaks them

Clermont sit 8th, two wins from two home games and nothing away: 13-38 at La Rochelle, where the Auvergne press watched the ASM sink, 24-46 at Bayonne, 36-40 at Lyon. In La Rochelle, 26 points conceded in the second half after a yellow card. The home crowd expects the reaction at home, where ASM have not lost.

The best attack only wins at home too

4th hosts 8th, and the head-to-head is one glance:

Thirty-eight points and six tries a game: this attack is not coming to Clermont to shut the match down. It loses everything on the road, 25-38 at Perpignan, 12-48 at Toulouse, and Clermont concede around twelve penalties a game. Against a side that plays standing up, every penalty given away in front of the line costs three points at a time. UBB, for their part, already look further ahead: they open their Champions Cup at Gloucester on Friday 16 October.

Jalibert still out, Reus or Retière at fly-half

The heaviest absence is confirmed: Matthieu Jalibert, a quadriceps tear on 20 September against Stade Français, four weeks out by his own count, up to six according to the regional press. A day out from kick-off, the LNR still has not published the line-ups. The probable XVs in the press give Plummer at fly-half for Clermont with Jauneau captaining, and Reus or Retière in the UBB number 10 shirt outside Lucu; nothing official before Saturday.

On the absentees, the third-party Allrugby list has not moved since the start of the week:

• Clermont, eight absent: Marcos Kremer suspended, plus the injured Ojovan, Tolofua, Ratuva, Muarua, Ceyte, Frisach, Veschambre;
• UBB, nine absent: Jalibert, Penaud, Tameifuna, Coleman, du Preez, Janse van Rensburg, Affane, Bochaton, Moon;
• two names to treat with care: Penaud appears in no probable XV, and Tameifuna, listed injured by the same source, is back on the bench in the press XVs. I read that as a likely return, not a certain one.

Showers remain possible on Saturday evening; the forecast keeps changing, and I take nothing from it for the bet.

The bet: Clermont to win, 0.25 units and nothing more

I lean Clermont, 64 times out of 100: two home games, two wins, against a UBB side that loses every away trip and rebuilds without Jalibert, very probably without Penaud. I am not going higher: Clermont give away around twelve penalties a game, UBB remain 4th with the best attack, and the line-ups are still not out.

My price is locked: 1.55 with Betano, taken on Tuesday, a price that asks 64.5%, bang on my estimate; the market had read this match well, hence the minimum stake. Since then it has run the same way: 1.33 with Bet365 on Friday, which asks 75.2%; at that price there is nothing left to take. The bet does not change, it is on record: 0.25 units, $25 for $13.75 net if Clermont win. A draw, like a UBB defeat, loses it.

This winner market is priced in full by only two books, with a 9% margin: the price is what it is, and I took it small. To fit a stake to your own estimate, the Kelly calculator does the maths; this pick joins my public record, where every bet settles at the result, won or lost. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

22-23: UBB win where they always lost

Clermont fell at home, 22-23: a first defeat at Marcel-Michelin this season, after two wins from two home games. UBB took their first away win of the season. One point in it, and two streaks broken on the same night.

My bet falls with Clermont: 1.55 taken on Tuesday with Betano, 0.25 units ($25), lost. I had kept it small for want of an edge. The market had pushed Clermont to 1.33 on Friday: on the night, it lost as well.