Toulouse – Montpellier: a final rematch with gaps in the home pack

Toulouse beat Montpellier 28-20 in June’s Top 14 final. The two sides meet again with Toulouse at home and short of several forwards. The hosts still have the stronger claim to victory; I am interested in whether the market has made Montpellier too remote a possibility. Their scrum and breakdown work will need to stay competitive from the outset.

One point between last season’s finalists

Toulouse’s club preview places the hosts second on ten points, Montpellier fifth on nine, after three rounds. Both have won twice. Montpellier’s 50-13 win over Perpignan and 26-12 away victory at Vannes show more than a side merely hoping to keep the score respectable. Toulouse beat Bordeaux 48-12 at home and then edged Vannes 29-23 away.

The Top 14 league account revisits the 28-20 final. It explains the interest in the rematch, but does not make this early-season contest a second final.

Missing Toulouse forwards change the set-piece equation

Emmanuel Meafou, François Cros and Jack Willis are missing from the Toulouse pack, La Dépêche reports. On the Toulouse club team sheet, Flament and Brennan make up the second row, with Dupont and Romain Ntamack at half-back. Ramos and Capuozzo are among the backs. Toulouse can still hurt any opponent from quick ball; winning that ball cleanly is the immediate question.

• The Toulouse forward absences affect depth at the contact area, not the quality of Dupont’s decision-making.
• The Montpellier club confirms Auguste Cadot’s knee injury. Ali Price and Adam Hastings are listed in the visitors’ team on the Toulouse sheet.
• Watch the first scrums and penalties: territory handed to Toulouse gives Ramos opportunities.

Can Montpellier make Toulouse play impatiently?

The hosts’ 48-12 home result against Bordeaux demands respect. Montpellier’s away win at Vannes gives a reason to question a price that nearly rules them out. If the visitors compete at the set piece and stop the hosts clearing the breakdown quickly, they can make a close contest of it. If they concede repeated penalties, Toulouse’s half-backs will take command.

I do not take June’s result as a fixed template. Toulouse had a stronger forward selection then, and this is a league fixture rather than a final. The edge for Montpellier is small in absolute probability, which is why the stake must be small too.

Montpellier at 15.00, a half-unit outsider play

My pick is Montpellier to win at 15.00 with Bet365, available this Sunday. The price suggests 6.7%; I make it 9% after accounting for Montpellier’s start and the Toulouse absences. The available opening and current price with this bookmaker are unchanged. This is an ambitious bet and I put down just 0.5 unit, or $50; Toulouse remain overwhelmingly more likely to win.

Use the unit-stake calculator to size a long shot; my public record keeps the outcome visible. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

After the match

Stade Toulousain 40-18 Montpellier. Toulouse put up forty points despite the absences of Meafou, Cros and Willis; Montpellier did not keep the score close as my outsider case required. That result alone does not tell us who won the scrum or breakdown battle. My Montpellier win pick at 15.00 with Bet365 lost 0.5 unit, or $50.