Newcastle come home, Villa arrive without a left-back

Newcastle lose on the road, hold at home

Matthias Jaissle apologised to the supporters after the 4-1 defeat at Coventry on Monday, a second heavy away beating in a row after the 4-1 at Leeds in September. This Newcastle travel badly; the St James’ Park version holds: 2-1 against Hull City, 2-2 against Bournemouth, no home defeat for a side sitting eleventh on eight points. Saturday’s return home comes at a good time.

Bodies coming back, at half speed

At Thursday’s press conference, Jaissle set the frame: his returnees remain “a few weeks” from their best level. The official eleven follows that line: Joelinton starts; Burn, with two training sessions in his legs, does not. The coach refuses the injury excuse and points to the 2-1 over Hull as the model reaction after Coventry. I watch the minutes rather than the names: when a team gets its midfield runners back, the pressing comes back first, and the freshness of the block will show in the last half hour.

Two teams, two ways of travelling

Across their last five matches, Newcastle have lost their last two league trips by three goals; Villa had strung together three away wins before the draw with Brentford. Each score is shown from the side named first.

Villa still patch up their left side

Sixteenth on five points, the crisis on Villa’s left flank carries on: Ruggeri (hamstring) is out for more than a month and Maatsen (ankle), “not yet available” according to Emery on Tuesday, with a return “in a few days or a week”: too early for Saturday. The stopgap held on Wednesday: Wan-Bissaka, a right-back, kept the left-back slot against Fenerbahce. The official eleven confirms the patch-up: Cash, Lindelof, Mings and Wan-Bissaka form the back four. A right-back filling in on the left cuts inside onto his stronger foot: the lane closes, and the build-up on that side loses its outlet. The weak side of a block is always the one opponents attack first.

• Newcastle, out: Jaouen (hamstring, around two months), Elanga, Livramento and Ramsey.
• Newcastle: Toure, “much better” according to Jaissle on Thursday, is not in Saturday’s eleven.
• Villa: Onana (knee, long-term), Ruggeri and Maatsen out; Hemmings (knee) and Goretzka do not start.

A Saturday between two European Wednesdays

The schedule allows no breather: Villa hosted Fenerbahce in the Champions League on Wednesday, travel on Saturday, then face Viking the following Wednesday and Manchester City the Saturday after. Four games in eleven days are rarely lost on the drawing board: they are lost in the legs of the players who press.

At 2.34, the market doubts Newcastle a little more

Newcastle trade at 2.34 with 10BET, Thursday’s price, up from an opening 2.17; the draw is 3.855 and Villa 3.185, down from 3.35. At 2.34, the market gives Newcastle just under one chance in two, and it kept sliding towards Villa this week. The hesitation is fair: the last two meetings went one way each, Villa 0-2 at St James’ Park in January, Newcastle 3-1 at Villa Park in February in the Cup. The double chance of the bet, taken at 1.42 on Wednesday, is down to 1.405: the market has walked the same path.

My bet: cover the tight scenario

Double chance Newcastle or draw, at 1.42 with Betano, recorded on Wednesday evening: if Newcastle win or draw, the bet pays $10.50 net on a $25 stake; if Villa win, it loses. I give Newcastle or the draw 73%, against 70.4% for the price: three points of edge, too thin for a full stake. 0.25 units, the minimum, the kind the Kelly calculator turns into dollars. The line-ups of the day point the same way as the bet.

The bet dies if the September Villa turn up, the one that won at Tottenham and won here in January. Any share of the points covers me, and the team that has not lost at St James’ Park this season is the home side. My results, wins and losses, are on the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

St James’ Park falls, Manzambi decides

Aston Villa won 0-1, and the fortress fell: Newcastle’s first home defeat of the season. Johan Manzambi settled it with a header on 36 minutes, from a João Gomes cross; the midfielder had agreed to join Newcastle in the summer, a late bid took him to Villa instead, and three days after his goal against Fenerbahçe he punished the club waiting for him. Botman had already escaped a red early on (18th minute, challenge on Jackson, VAR kept the booking), and Buendía hit the post (39th). The full report is at Sky Sports.

The doomsday scenario I wrote before kick-off played out to the letter: “the bet dies if the September Villa turn up, the one that won at Tottenham and won here in January”. They turned up, they won, and Villa had not won back-to-back at St James’ Park since 1958. The freshness never showed: one shot on target all match, a Botman strike saved by Suzuki, and by conceding that goal Newcastle made it 16 straight games without a clean sheet, a club record.

The pick is lost: double chance Newcastle or draw at 1.42 with Betano, the minimum $25 stake gone. It still traded at 1.42 at kick-off. A $25 loss on the public record.