After five straight defeats, Marseille arrive at Angers favourites and tired

Marseille have won only two Ligue 1 games since the season started, and the second of those, a 2-0 at Troyes on 11 October (Harit, then Abdelli from the penalty spot), mainly put an end to a run of five straight defeats, Beşiktaş included. On Sunday at the Stade Raymond-Kopa they still turn up as favourites: thirteenth with six points, but with a squad a class above an Angers side sitting twelfth and reeling from a 5-1 at Brest. I read this match more in how many goals Marseille score than in who wins it, and that is where my bet goes.

Without Højbjerg, Marseille lose their out-ball

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, injured (thigh) while away with Denmark, missed the Olympiacos game; Genesio calls him too tight for the week ahead, while some match sheets still list him as doubtful. He is the one who moves the ball on cleanly under pressure; without the Dane, the first Angers line has one more angle to win it high up. The sickbay does not stop there: Derek Cornelius (hip) is out until the end of the calendar year, Amine Gouiri, back from a carefully managed thigh problem, is in line to start.

The schedule has bitten: Olympiacos won 0-1 at the Vélodrome on Thursday evening, Hezze scoring from a corner before the break, their second European defeat in two group games. Genesio counted afterwards: eight games, only two wins, frustrating and even annoying, with a weakness on set pieces. Himad Abdelli, on the scoresheet at Troyes, had promised to bring the three points back from Angers. Fine words; nine goals in six league games, one from the spot, describe a team that does not run up big scores even when it wins.

The probable line-ups for matchday 7 bring Weah back from suspension and field a full-strength attack: Gouiri, Harit and Abdelli from the start. Malick Meïté, handed his first start of the season on Thursday, impressed. That full attack did not score against Olympiacos; it is the one my bet has to keep quiet.

Angers must rebuild their back line

Stéphane Gilli, appointed in June from Paris FC, pulled his team out of a poor start (3-1 at Auxerre, 2-0 against Troyes), but the block collapsed at Brest: a penalty conceded, Ousmane Camara substituted as early as the 34th minute, Jordan Lefort sent off in the 59th. The verdict has come: Lefort, the most consistent piece of the Angers defence, is suspended for this one, and the back line gets reshuffled without him. The absentees and doubts, camp by camp:

• Jordan Lefort (Angers), sent off at Brest: suspended on Sunday.
• Ousmane Camara (Angers), taken off in the 34th minute: listed out on the LFP sheet, doubtful elsewhere.
• Simbakoli (Angers): unclear status, out when we wrote, a return mentioned since.
• Derek Cornelius and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (Marseille): ruled out by Genesio, with Gouiri managed.

What the recent form says

One team off a win, the other off a defeat, and Marseille have scored more than one goal in only two of their last five, Olympiacos on Thursday included. The last 20 league meetings between the clubs read nine Marseille wins, two for Angers and nine draws, including a 2-5 at Angers in January; history leans heavily to one side and says nothing about the goal count.

The bet: Marseille under 1.5 goals

The market has made its choice: Marseille, 2.20 when I wrote, are 2.12 this Saturday with 1xbet, shortened from 2.28 at the opening. At that level, the away win leaves nothing to squeeze. I am taking Marseille under 1.5 team goals, taken at 1.98 on Thursday, 2.02 since: I make it 54% likely that Marseille score at most once, where the odds imply barely more than one chance in two. The bet wins if Marseille stay on zero or one goal (+$49) and loses as soon as they score twice (-$50).

The stake is half a unit ($50), no more, because the losing scenario is real: Angers have just shipped five at Brest, and a rebuilt defence can also open up. The edge I see is thin, and I say so; to size your own stake, the Kelly calculator does the maths. The result will swell or dent my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Five goals from Marseille, the pick dies before the break

Marseille won 5-2 at Raymond-Kopa. Rao-Lisoa had headed Angers in front (14th), Abdelli equalised in kind from a Weah cross (37th), and Kamissoko’s header at the end of an Emerson centre (43rd) put Marseille on two goals before the interval. On two goals, my Marseille under 1.5 goals bet stops existing. The goal-by-goal recap is at FotMob.

The scenario I flagged is the one that played out: a rebuilt Angers defence can also open up, and it opened. Gouiri saw a penalty saved (59th) and scored straight after (60th), El Ouazzani pulled one back from the spot (75th), Harit (83rd) and Paixão (85th) closed the rout: twenty-one Marseille shots, five goals in one game from a side that had scored nine in six league matches.

The pick is lost: Marseille under 1.5 goals at 1.98 with 1xbet. Come kick-off the price had drifted to 2.12, a market that believed in it less than me, and it was right. A $50 loss, the half unit, on the public record.