United have not started this badly since 1986, and a rested Leeds waits at Elland Road

Manchester United have not started a league season this badly since 1986: six points from six games, one win, thirteenth place. On Sunday the Roses derby waits for them at Elland Road, in a ground that has never needed a reason to dislike United. Leeds, seventh on nine points, have had a full week to prepare; United come back from Madrid.

Madrid on Tuesday, Elland Road on Sunday

United lost 2-0 at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday, three days after letting a 1-1 slip against Tottenham at Old Trafford: Mbeumo had opened the scoring, Bentancur was sent off, and Solanke equalised ten against eleven in stoppage time. Five days separate Madrid from the derby, Michael Carrick’s position is already being questioned in the English press, and Ruben Amorim was sacked the day after the 1-1 between these two clubs in January. Carrick has also revealed that his captain Bruno Fernandes has been playing with an injury since the start of the season. And the noise has not stopped: Lisandro Martinez publicly criticised the club’s lack of investment, aiming at his technical director, then apologised; Carrick settled it on Friday, the Argentine is in the squad. Andrey Santos and Carlos Baleba, signed for close to £120m combined, have not turned the slope yet.

Leeds solid at home, without Rodon

Leeds conceded their first defeat of the season at Arsenal (2-1, Justin equalising), and Arteta admitted his side had been lucky. At Elland Road the base holds: 0-0 against Crystal Palace, 4-1 against Newcastle, Calvert-Lewin already on three league goals. The back line still needs rebuilding: Joe Rodon (hamstring) is out for eight to ten weeks. The absentees and doubts, camp by camp:

• Leeds: Rodon (hamstring) and Mateo Joseph (knee) out.
• Daniel James (back), back in training since Thursday, has a real chance of making the squad; Bahoya and Wilson are available.
• Manchester United: Dorgu (hamstring), Ugarte (knee, long term) and Heaton out; Shaw and Mainoo still doubtful, Mazraoui on an optimistic slope.
• Sesko (leg): tests ongoing, still far away; De Ligt (back) remains a long-term absentee.

What the recent form says

Across those five games, Leeds scored every time and United did not win once. The last competitive derby dates from April: Leeds won 2-1 at Old Trafford, after a 1-1 at Elland Road in January. Back-to-back wins over United would be a first for Leeds since 1971-72; and United are unbeaten on their last seven trips to Elland Road, last losing there in September 2002.

The bet: Leeds to win

The market has flipped: Leeds, taken at 2.42 on Thursday with 1xbet, still trade at 2.43 this Saturday, tightened from 2.60 at the open, while United drifted from 2.85 to 3.00. The weekend’s news has not moved the price. I make Leeds 44% to win, a little above the price (41%): freshness, home ground, an opponent in freefall. The bet wins if Leeds take the three points (+$71.20 net on half a unit) and loses to a draw or a United win (-$50).

Half a unit ($50), no more: a derby keeps its own variance, and Leeds have not won since 14 September. I am betting freshness and home ground against the visitors’ crisis, without forcing it; to size your own stake, the Kelly calculator does the maths, and the result joins my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Mbeumo strikes first, Calvert-Lewin answers: 1-1

Leeds and Manchester United drew 1-1 at Elland Road. Mbeumo put United ahead from close range at the end of a Tielemans cross (35th); Calvert-Lewin answered in the 51st, from a Stach corner flicked on by Muharemovic. United stay unbeaten on this ground, where they have not lost since September 2002, and this was a sixth straight game without a win. The rest is in the Yorkshire Evening Post report.

Carrick had kept Martínez in the XI and took him off at the break for Mazraoui, who then lost Muharemovic on the equalising corner. Leeds had their winner in stoppage time: Stach’s stabbed effort beat Lammens and found Mazraoui in its path.

The pick is lost: Leeds to win at 2.42 with 1xbet dies on the draw. A $50 loss, the half unit, on the public record.