Unbeaten Monaco visit a Lorient side that beat them twice last season

The Moustoir waited six matchdays for its first home win: 1-0 against Paris FC on 10 October, a goal from Bernardeau. The reward for opening the account is a visit from the leaders. And not just any leaders: Monaco, on 14 points, unbeaten, and beaten twice in a row by the Bretons last season.

Monaco close out a three-game week

On Thursday night in Sofia, Monaco opened their Conference League campaign with a 2-1 win at CSKA, who pulled a goal back inside the last quarter of an hour. Sunday at the Moustoir will be their third match in eight days, three days on from the trip back from Bulgaria. Filipe Luís, appointed in July, has all his injured players back: Fati, Teze, Zakaria and Golovin before the Toulouse game, then Minamino, back from a long knee injury, who started in Sofia and set up the first goal. The league is the exception: Brunner, suspended, the top scorer in Ligue 1 with four goals, misses a second straight match after scoring and providing an assist in Bulgaria. Dier (thigh) and Idumbo were doubtful: neither of them starts, and Balogun was not registered for the Conference League.

The draw against Toulouse at the Louis-II (2-2, after leading at the break) cooled the run: four wins, two draws, still no defeat in the league.

Lorient hold the recipe, not the consistency

The Lorient paradox: league form in fits and starts (W-D-L-D-W over five matches, 8 points, 8th), but two wins over Monaco last season, 3-1 at the Moustoir and 3-1 at the Louis-II.

Across their last five, Lorient beat Lens and Paris FC, drew with Toulouse and lost at Troyes and Le Mans. Monaco, unbeaten in the league, left two points against Toulouse before winning in Sofia.

• Filipe Luís’s team sheet on the way back from Sofia: three days of recovery, a nearly full squad that allows heavy rotation, The official line-up settles the striker question: Abline starts, backed by Minamino, Golovin and Fati.
• The Moustoir, 92 per cent full last season, one of the best occupancy rates in Ligue 1; the first home win has the crowd back onside.
• Lorient’s injury list in the official line-up: Mbamba (building fitness) the only certain absentee; Jensen and Katseris, doubtful all week, do not start.

A favourite at 2.10 coming back from Bulgaria

Monaco are priced 2.10 at 10BET, level with the opening price; the draw is 3.58 and a Lorient win 3.87 at 1xbet. At 2.10, the market gives the leaders a shade under a one-in-two chance. The double chance, Lorient or draw, is 1.82 at 1xbet, both teams to score is 1.75 at Bet365, and the 2.5-goal line sits at 1.97 both ways.

The market has barely moved since it opened. In plain terms, Monaco’s fatigue is not in the price. That is where I look for my edge.

My bet: Lorient or draw, 0.5 units

I’m taking the double chance at 1.82 at 1xbet, giving Lorient a 58 per cent chance of avoiding defeat against the market’s 54. Lorient win or draw: $41.10 net. Monaco win: the $50 stake is lost.

0.5 units, a measured stake: the Kelly calculator sets out the logic, and every stake we place in units is tracked in our public record. The bet dies if Monaco come back from Bulgaria with fresh legs and if Lorient replay the Troyes game, a 1-2 home defeat at the end of August. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

1-0: Cadiou brings the leader down

Lorient beat Monaco 1-0 at the Moustoir. It was goalless at the break; on the hour, a foul from Zakaria and Nazinho on Sylla gave Lorient a penalty, and Noah Cadiou converted it. The man of the match kept Lorient in front to the end, and Monaco, three days on from Sofia, had the ball without having the chances. The FotMob match page has the rest.

The first defeat of the season costs Monaco the lead: they drop to fourth while PSG go top for the first time this season. Lorient keep rolling: a second straight home win after the 1-0 over Paris FC, and a third in a row over Monaco.

The pick is won: Lorient or draw at 1.82 with 1xbet never even needed the draw. A $41.10 gain, the half unit, on the public record.