Lyon – Nice: a month without Openda, and a Nice side still pointless on the road

On Thursday night Lyon beat Crystal Palace in the Europa League with a reshuffled eleven, as Paulo Fonseca had promised. On Saturday, the day before the game, the coach confirmed a heavy rotation for the return to Ligue 1. Lyon, fifth on 11 points, come back after the defeat at Lens, their first of the season, against a side the league itself calls “ideal”: a Nice team without a point on the road. Lyon’s price has drifted from 1.71 to 1.75 with 1xbet over the week. I keep my angle: over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with Betano.

Descamps in goal, and the rest follows

Loïs Openda suffered a hairline fracture of the right fibula at Lens: at least a month out. Fonseca has to redistribute the finishing, and he started on Thursday, Nakamura from the start. On Saturday he named his goalkeeper: Rémy Descamps keeps goal, and Sunday’s official lineup fills in the rest: Athekame, Mata, Niakhaté, back from injury and Abner at the back; Bidstrup and Tessmann in the middle; Duranville, Nartey and Boudache behind Šulc, the lone striker. Tyler Morton does not start: three games in a week was too much for his pubalgia.

• Loïs Openda: hairline fracture of the right fibula, out for at least a month;
• Nicolas Tagliafico: knee, out for around three weeks;
• Ouedraogo: knee, out on Sunday.

No points on the road, a defence under construction

Olivier Pantaloni’s Nice, appointed in June to succeed Claude Puel, has taken no points away from the Côte d’Azur: two trips, two defeats, no goals scored. The come-from-behind win over Strasbourg stayed at home; on 8 points, the club sits twelfth. For the trip to Lyon the defensive rebuild goes on: the official Nice eleven has Diouf in goal, behind a back three of Abdelmonem, Ndayishimiye and Mandza Tsiendi; Bombito, Mendy, Abergel and Sanson, injured, do not travel, and Abdi, bothered by a quadriceps problem, does not start. Clauss, Boudaoui, Witsel and Nkounkou make up the midfield; Wahi leads the line, with Amoura and Hein behind him. A patched-up defence at the Groupama usually ends up conceding.

Seven of the last ten games over the line

Four of Lyon’s last five matches and three of Nice’s last five went over two and a half goals, European games included, which do not carry the weight of Ligue 1. Of the last five meetings Lyon won four; the only defeat was 3-2 at Nice, exactly a year ago. The Groupama then restored order: 2-0 in February.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with Betano

I give 59% to a match with three goals or more. At 1.72, the Betano price taken on Monday, the market shows about 57, and the line has barely moved since. The gap is too small to call an edge: minimum stake, 0.25 units, $25, for $18 net. The official line-ups do not move that balance: Lyon’s rotation cools the attacking case, Nice’s depleted defence keeps it alive. The market has read this match well: I lean towards goals, with no clear value to sell. To price your own conviction, the Kelly calculator does the maths.

Three goals or more in normal time, the bet wins; two or fewer, the $25 is lost. The scenario that loses it: a reshuffled Lyon side pacing itself between Crystal Palace and Hoffenheim, and a Nice block that holds. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose. This pick joins my public record, wins and losses alike.

Three goals in twenty minutes, Lyon alone on top

Lyon beat Nice 2-1 at the Groupama on Sunday night and now sit alone at the top of Ligue 1, on 14 points, on goal difference. Nice had opened through Wahi in the 17th, at the end of a counter led by Clauss; four minutes later Tessmann turned the match with a header across goal, from an Athekame cross after a free kick taken quickly by Boudache. All three goals were in. Down to ten for the last twenty minutes, Lyon held: Witsel against the crossbar on 52, Wahi against the post, a Nice equaliser ruled out for offside. The Radio SCOOP report has the rest.

The angle of the preview holds: a third away trip, a third defeat, and the first goal Nice have scored away from the Côte d’Azur earns them nothing. Lyon’s reshuffled eleven paced itself between Crystal Palace and Thursday’s trip to Hoffenheim, and won all the same.

The pick is won, and quickly: three goals in a little over twenty minutes, over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with Betano never had time to scare. The stake was minimal, $25, a quarter of a unit, with no clear value at the take. The $18 net goes on the public record.