Anadolu Efes – Besiktas: Istanbul’s first EuroLeague derby, with a thinner home edge than it looks

Istanbul’s derby has never been played in the EuroLeague: Besiktas last featured in the competition in 2012-13, and the two clubs had never met at this level. On Thursday night they share the Basketbol Gelişim Merkezi, 10,000 seats in Zeytinburnu. Efes are the hosts, but Besiktas play their home games there too: the crowd will be mixed, and so will the home edge.

A brand-new fixture, and a clash of styles that writes itself: Besiktas run the third-best offence in the league (92.3 points per game), Efes carry the sixth-best defence (85.0 conceded). The gap in the standings is thin: Efes 13th (2-4), Besiktas 11th (3-3).

Efes are missing four players

Neither club has filed its medical report for the day, so nothing is official for Thursday. Four Efes players remain unavailable:

• Mike James, Achilles surgery: seven to nine months out, season over;
• Isaia Cordinier, operated on in May, still not back;
• Georgios Papagiannis, ACL;
• PJ Dozier, back trouble: two to three weeks according to the latest European injury report.

For Besiktas, the club spoke up on Monday evening: Mady Sissoko and DaQuan Jeffries (wrist) are only back in individual work, both out of the derby. The wildcard remains Lonnie Walker IV: signed on 15 October after Denver released him, he could make his European debut as early as Thursday. A scoring guard dropping into a derby changes a rotation, for better or worse.

The press has added a name to the Efes list: Brice Dessert, cleared by the NCAA to play next season at LSU, with a buy-out reported at $750,000. The club has not confirmed it; if he leaves now, Efes lose another interior presence with Papagiannis already out.

The derby arrives at the worst time for Efes

Both just won in Europe, but not the same match. Efes answered a 93-101 home defeat to Bayern with an 85-70 win in Kaunas, their first on the road. Besiktas wiped away the 82-100 against Hapoel, played in Sofia, by beating Bayern 95-87 in front of their own fans.

Three days before the derby, Efes fell: 70-73 at Esenler Erokspor, a promoted side, a first league defeat of the season, with a six-point lead and ten minutes to play. “We lost a match we had in hand,” Laso said on beIN Sports. “We failed to close it out.” The pressure of the derby sits on Efes, not on Besiktas.

The point-guard duel will say plenty: Payne and Strazel are gathering pace for Efes, Loyd is playing his 200th EuroLeague game, and Besiktas’s first unit will have to hold the ball against a defence that concedes 85 points a night. Besiktas also travel better than they guard their own floors, 2-1 away. In the Turkish league, Efes won 95-81 on 27 September: a different competition, different rotations, and proof the gap here is not an overwhelming favourite’s gap.

The bet: Besiktas’s points, at minimum stake

None of that cooling shows in the prices: Efes still sit at 1.59 with BetMGM, the main spread still at 4 points. I will take the other side: Besiktas +4.5 at 1.85 with Betway on Wednesday. I give the bet a 56% chance, against the 54% the price implies.

Why the spread rather than the outright: at 2.55, a Besiktas win is still an upset special. With 4.5 points, the bet also lands if the derby goes to the wire, which is what derbies do. Besiktas win or lose by four or fewer: the bet is up, $21.25 net on a $25 stake. A defeat by five or more: down.

The stake tells the rest of the story: 0.25 units, the minimum. Besiktas +4.5 has kept drifting, from 1.93 at the open to 1.88 with 1xbet on Tuesday; my bet is frozen at 1.85. The market read this derby the way I did, and my edge melted on the way. I keep my read, with no net edge, and it goes on the public record for what it is; the staking method says the same in numbers. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

57-36 at the break: Efes fold the first derby

Anadolu Efes win the first Istanbul derby in EuroLeague history 89-80, and they folded it in twenty minutes. 29-17, then 28-19: 21 points clear at half-time, and my Besiktas +4.5 out of reach. Besiktas punched back after the interval, 24-11 in the third; the fourth closed 21-20, too short. Cam Payne finished on 22 points, Eugene Omoruyi carried Besiktas with 16: the quarter-by-quarter detail is in the official game center.

The week had loaded all the pressure on Efes, the Erokspor defeat included. Their defence answered: the league’s third-best offence stays on 80 points, twelve under its average. And the market finished more sceptical than me: taken on Wednesday at 1.85, the handicap was worth 2.05 at tip-off. A $25 loss, the minimum stake, on the public record.