ASVEL win with 98 points, Zvezda win with 77

Last Wednesday, ASVEL went to Paris Basketball and won 98-96, on a game-winning shot missed at the buzzer by Nadir Hifi. On Tuesday at the Astroballe, they host a Crvena Zvezda side who win the other way round: 77-72 over Efes, 77-58 in Dubai, two victories built on defence. When these two teams meet, the total matters more than the winner: I am taking over 164.5 points.

Two equal records, two opposite games

Both teams sit on two wins and two defeats in the EuroLeague, but they did not get there the same way. ASVEL needed 98 points to get out of Paris; Zvezda conceded 130 across their last two games, against Efes and then in Dubai. Over the season, Zvezda concede 73.5 points per game, the second-best defence in the league, but score only 77.8, the 19th-ranked attack. ASVEL play one of the fastest tempos in the EuroLeague. One wins by running, the other by suffocating.

Patty Mills, 38, leads ASVEL at 16.8 points per game, and Bolomboy, 5.5 rebounds, meets the club he used to play for. The Serbian calendar is heavy: Dubai on Thursday, Belgrade on Saturday, Villeurbanne on Tuesday, three games in five days and two flights. ASVEL have the same week: Real Madrid on Thursday, then Limoges on Saturday. Heavy legs on defence give away points.

The Serbian paint is on one leg

The key to the game is inside. Johnathan Motley, the starting centre, is out for several weeks with a muscle injury. Ebuka Izundu, the last centre available, sprained his ankle on Saturday against Buducnost, and the doubt remains: the official round 5 injury report, published on Monday evening, settled nothing, with neither club having sent a medical update. If Izundu misses the double week, Villeurbanne on Tuesday then Paris on Friday, Semi Ojeleye or Vojin Medarevic could fill in at centre. Without Motley or Izundu, Zvezda have no true five, and Bolomboy plays in conquered territory.

• Johnathan Motley (muscle injury): out for several weeks, announced by the club;
• Ebuka Izundu (ankle): doubtful for Tuesday;
• on the ASVEL side, Mathis Dossou-Yovo (adductors) is out, with a return expected in early November;
• TyTy Washington (ankle) is out as well;
• Juhann Begarin, the one-month reinforcement, left injured against Roanne, remains doubtful.

ASVEL have no such problem: they score a lot and concede as much. On Tuesday, they attack a Serbian paint without its starting centre, maybe without either of them: that is where the points come from.

Zvezda favourites, the total is climbing

The winner is already settled as far as the market is concerned: Zvezda at 1.81 with Unibet on Monday, ASVEL at 2.09 with 1xbet, and history agrees, with Zvezda winning the last three meetings between the two, six of the last eight. On the total, the main line is 164.5, and the market keeps leaning towards points: the under has drifted from 1.87 to 1.95 with BetMGM, the best over sits at 1.97 with Unibet. My bet is still the one from Monday morning: 164.5 at 2.00 with 888Sport, stake unchanged.

Over 164.5 points, 0.75 units

I give this bet 53.5%, about four points more than the market, hence a middle-sized stake: 0.75 units, $75, for a $75 profit if the two teams combine for 165 points or more, overtime included. My scenario: ASVEL impose their tempo, Zvezda defend without their centres, and the evening runs past the line. The opposite exists too, a Serbian-style locked game with 58 points on one side, and it would sink the bet. To size a stake against an edge on a total, the Kelly calculator does the maths; my public record follows both outcomes. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Zvezda lock it, the line crosses in the last quarter

Crvena Zvezda win 84-82 in Villeurbanne. ASVEL led 46-42 at half-time; the second half went the other way: 21-24, then a last quarter held to 15-18. Both Gach finished on 19 points, Chima Moneke had 18 for Belgrade, Chris Jones 9 assists: the full box score.

My scenario ran backwards: I had ASVEL imposing their pace, Zvezda won by smothering it. Without Motley, and with the Izundu question mark, Zvezda still conceded 82, above their 73.5 average: the line went over on their attacking, 84 points from a team scoring 77.8.

The bet lived to the end: 133 points after three quarters, 32 more needed, the fourth brought 33. Over 164.5 points, won: 0.75 units at 2.00 with 888Sport, $75 net, and the closing price came back down to 1.91, the market joining Monday’s read.