Zalgiris, the last team to win at the Palau, return to face a Barcelona down to one true centre

The last time Zalgiris Kaunas travelled to the Palau Blaugrana they left with an 88-73 win. That was 23 October 2025, and this season nobody has won in that arena yet. Forty-two meetings, thirty-two Barcelona wins: history leans Catalan, the last memory is Lithuanian. On Friday the two clubs meet again in round four.

A Barcelona that runs, and one true centre to hold the line

Sekulic’s Barcelona sit sixth on two wins and one defeat, and come off a 100-94 Liga Endesa loss at Murcia. The squad changed a lot over the summer, and Tomas Masiulis, the Zalgiris coach, reads it this way: a team that runs, plays modern, plenty of one-on-one and only fourteen assists, with Robinson, Gibson, Punter and Brizuela as engines and full-court pressure that wears down opposing guards.

The interior injury list is still full:

• Tosan Evbuomwan (shoulder): out;
• Yoan Makoundou (knee): out;
• Josh Nebo: injured, leaving Balcerowski as the only true centre on the roster.

Zalgiris on the road again, waiting for a messiah

A third consecutive away game for the Lithuanians, Barcelona then Fenerbahçe: the run without a home match goes on. In the EuroLeague one win and two defeats; in the domestic league four wins from four. This team lives in the paint with Valančiūnas and Edwards: it attempts the fewest three-pointers in the competition (22.7) and grabs the third-most rebounds (40.3).

Masiulis defended his guard Giedraitis against criticism: “criticism should target the coach”. On Saben Lee he cools it: he awaits him “like a messiah”, the guard is back in training, and the club will announce its decision on game day. Williams-Goss remains sidelined with the same hamstring injury, per the club, with no return date. Last off-court note: Carsen Edwards was arrested for drink-driving; the club was investigating, and no sanction had been confirmed by the eve of the game.

What the market says

On Thursday Barcelona stand at 1.782, Zalgiris at 2.20, the main spread at -1.5. Since opening the money has gone the Lithuanian way: the win has shortened from 2.30 to 2.20, and +3.5 from 1.90 to 1.80. The main total has climbed to 173, its over cut from 2.12 to 1.92. The market knows about the Catalan infirmary.

Zalgiris +3.5 at 1.80: the rebound bet

I take Zalgiris +3.5 at 1.80 with 888Sport. Zalgiris win, or lose by three points or fewer, overtime included: +$60. Barcelona win by four points or more: -$75.

Barcelona have one true centre, and Zalgiris are the third-best rebounding team in the league: even the best Barcelona do not promise a four-point margin. I make Zalgiris +3.5 58%, against 55.8% for the market, and the stake follows: 0.75 units. Two reservations, to be honest: Williams-Goss remains out per the club, and if Saben Lee does not play, the Lithuanian creation depends on Edwards alone. This is a handicap bet, not an outright call. The stake logic is in the Kelly calculator, my open bets in my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Thirty-three points in the fourth

Zalgiris won 88-81 at the Palau Blaugrana, their second straight win in the arena, and it was built in twelve minutes: Barcelona led by ten (65-55) after three quarters, and the Lithuanians scored 33 in the fourth to turn the room around. Carsen Edwards took 11 of them in that stretch, 19 on the night, Edgaras Ulanovas put his side ahead for the first time since the opening quarter, and Valanciunas finished with 12 points and 9 boards. Justin Robinson’s 20 points were not enough for Barça.

My Zalgiris +3.5 at 1.80 with 888Sport wins, and wins big: a seven-point win outright, the handicap never called upon. $60.00 back on 0.75 units. I had written this was a handicap bet, not an outright call; Zalgiris claimed both. Edwards, the man I feared would carry the creation alone, was the man of the final act.