Besiktas, back in the EuroLeague after thirteen years, call at a Baskonia side thin up front

Besiktas waited thirteen years to play EuroLeague basketball again, taking the spot left open by Bourg’s absence from the participants list. They did not come back to make up the numbers: 109-93 at Maccabi as early as round two. On Friday in Vitoria both sides walk in with the same record, one win and two defeats, and the same worry: the paint. The winner moves to 2-2, the loser sinks alone.

Baskonia have their first win, not a full frontcourt

Two heavy defeats to open the season, against Olympiacos and then in Valencia, a first win against Milan in round three (86-76), then a 118-78 demolition of Girona in the Liga Endesa: Baskonia needed three weeks to exist, and the taps are open. The autumn had been long in Vitoria, a pre-season ruined by injuries, a minimal roster, and friction between head coach Paolo Galbiati and the board that the supporters settled their own way, by backing the coach. Buesa will be full on Friday, and that crowd pushes.

Galbiati spoke on Thursday: he praised the depth of this Besiktas squad, named Wilbekin, Gabriel and Žižić, and described a compressed working week for his own team. The ongoing work is inside. Alex Len left at the end of September, and the game sheet lists three big men to cover forty minutes: Kenneth Faried, Marcio Santos and Thierry Henry Alves de Souza. That is thin for a EuroLeague night.

• Alex Len: contract terminated in late September, Baskonia;
• DaQuan Jeffries: wrist surgery after the round-one injury, still out per the injury report, Besiktas;
• Mady Sissoko: contract frozen on medical grounds, still out per the same report, Besiktas;
• neither club had filed a starting five by the eve of the game.

Besiktas play small, and fast

Dusan Alimpijevic is putting together a squad full of new signings and makes no secret of his pride in the group: “we are not in the EuroLeague for 13 years… it is a process of progression”. On the floor they run: 94-96 at home to Valencia, 109-93 at Maccabi, then a stumble against Barcelona. The Turks score plenty and concede almost as much.

Baskonia lead the head-to-head 2-0, two wins from the 2012-13 Top 16. Neither roster has anything left in common with those games.

What the market says

On Thursday’s odds the market expects a tight game: 1.72 Baskonia, 2.20 Besiktas, main spread at -2. The total tells another story: 178.5 points, and the over backed down from 2.25 to 1.91 since opening. The books expect pace and buckets. With two benches this short inside, I read a choppy game instead, fouls and free throws, and rotations shrinking in the fourth quarter.

Baskonia -2.5 at 2.00: minimum stake, said plainly

I take Baskonia -2.5 at 2.00 with 888Sport, price taken on Thursday. Baskonia win by three points or more, overtime included: +$25. A one- or two-point win, or a defeat: -$25.

The arena, the momentum of back-to-back wins and the Turkish void inside tilt me towards the hosts. I make this bet 51%, barely more than the market: no clear edge, so 0.25 units, and I say so plainly. Three big men do not promise a margin, and Besiktas have already won on the road. The logic behind a reduced stake sits in the Kelly calculator, my open bets in my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Wilbekin answered the Buesa

Besiktas won 84-92 and move to 2-2, on Dusan Alimpijevic’s 200th game on the Turkish bench. I had read a chopped-up game, fouls and free throws: Baskonia broke the all-time EuroLeague record for free throws attempted in a first half (29, 22 of them made), won the second quarter 31-21 and led 51-49 at the break. Then Scottie Wilbekin flipped the night: 24 points, a three to seal the 84-92 with 33 seconds left, his best night since January 2024. Chris Duarte answered with 23 points, and Baskonia slide to 1-3.

My Baskonia -2.5 at 2.00 with 888Sport is lost: a $25.00 loss, a quarter unit. The read on a chopped-up game was right, the read on the winner wrong. Galbiati name-checked Wilbekin, Gabriel and Žižić before the game, and Wilbekin played exactly the role the Basque coach feared. The minimum stake, taken without a clear edge, absorbs this mistake without damage.