No true centre for Baskonia, three rookies carrying Olimpia Milan in Vitoria

A EuroLeague game is won under the rim first. On Friday at the Fernando Buesa Arena, Baskonia go into it with Faried, 36, as their only true centre: Alex Len was released at the end of September, and head coach Paolo Galbiati said on Wednesday evening that Tadas Sedekerskis will go under the knife, his season probably over, and that Kurucs missed the Valencia game with swollen knees. The club has confirmed nothing since.

In Valencia, the first quarter told the story

26-10 after ten minutes, 1 of 14 from three at half-time, 10 turnovers: the evening in Valencia showed a team with no collective rhythm. Galbiati, who arrived this summer, inherited a wasted preseason between injuries and a short roster, and the reads are missing on every outing. Over two rounds, Baskonia have scored 177 points and conceded 217. Sedekerskis still put up 16 points and Faried 15 before the American took a knock on the leg in the third quarter and came back to finish the game.

The five spot now comes down to Faried and Frisch. Márcio Santos, who arrived on 29 September, is in Vitoria, but Galbiati doubts he can slot him in just like that: hard this week, we will see whether he can help straight away. The offensive rebound is still a Basque weapon, 15.5 boards per game against 11.0 for Milan, but you need bodies under the rim to cash it in.

Milan live on their rookies

Giuseppe Poeta has his bearings. An opening defeat, then a win scraped against Virtus Bologna on a Devon Hall buzzer-beater: the coach praised his three rookies, Cole, Burnell and Mathews, and the rotation runs through them. Cole and Thompson each played 37 minutes against Virtus.

The schedule gives no respite: 14 games in 36 days between 25 September and 30 October. Milan shoot 39.6 % from three since the restart, against 30.6 % for Baskonia. In a game that can come down to two possessions, that is the sharpest gap in the matchup.

The four results of the early season:

The doubts on the team sheet

• The round injury report lists only Pedro Souza for Baskonia, questionable, left out of the squad in Valencia as a coach’s decision; Sedekerskis’s surgery and Kurucs’s knees appear nowhere on it.
• Akele, Diop and Flaccadori are uncertain for Milan, also coach’s calls.
• Markus Howard is not injured: he simply missed the preseason and is still searching for his points, with a valuation of minus 5 in Valencia.

The bet: Milan at 1.80, small

The market has read this game and stood still: 1.80 for Milan at 888Sport on Thursday, 2.10 for Baskonia at BetMGM, cut from 2.20 at the open. Even Galbiati’s announcement left the price alone. At 1.80, the odds give the visitors a touch more than 55 %; I make it 56 %. The gap is too thin to raise the stake: 0.25 units, the minimum, the one the Kelly calculator keeps when the edge is nil.

I take Olimpia Milan to win the game, overtime included: a win adds $20, a loss burns $25. The Buesa Arena still roars, and Baskonia beat Milan there last December, 88-78; the last five meetings still tilt 3-2 to the Italians, and their outside shooting is scenario enough for me. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose. Every bet runs its course on my public record.

The Buesa Arena kept its house

Baskonia won 87-76. A team missing Sedekerskis and without a true centre held its floor from start to finish; Milan’s outside shooting, my main argument, never opened the gap.

Olimpia Milan at 1.80 loses: minimum stake, 0.25 units, -$25. I was following the market on a thin line; the Buesa Arena went the other way from my 56%.