Bayern Munich vs Virtus Bologna: the favourite that blew a 13-point lead

Bayern Munich lost their last EuroLeague game 84-86 after leading by thirteen, 65-52 in the third quarter. In the same round, Virtus Bologna knocked down the reigning champions Olympiacos, 96-94 on a Marcus Carr three at the buzzer. Thursday in Munich, the favourite no longer knows how to close a game; the underdog has just won one. And on the eve of the match, both clubs have cleared their injury lists.

Munich at full strength, Gavel still under construction

The building work shows: 76-100 at Fenerbahce in the opening round, then that lead melted down at home. Anton Gavel is only weeks into the job, and his backcourt is coming back slowly: Rokas Jokubaitis, a year without basketball before this return. The club have announced all fifteen professionals available: Miles Norris, back from dental surgery, and MarJon Beauchamp, over his infection, return after missing the BBL win over Oldenburg.

Bologna add Kokila to the gang

Virtus lost their first two games by ten and then two points, at Fenerbahce (68-78) and in the Milan derby (85-87), before the statement of the season: Marcus Carr signed 22 points and 10 assists in that win. On Wednesday, the club declared Kevin Kokila available, 37 days after the right hamstring injury that cost him six games. Available does not mean back to full loads: the ramp-up will be gradual.

The two teams after three rounds, line by line:

The ball goes to Carr when the game tightens

This game settles on the ball handler. Munich are still looking for theirs: Gavel rotates his guards, and the possession changes hands from one game to the next. Bologna already know who takes the shot in the last minutes, and Carr has the shoulders to keep it.

What I am watching

• Munich’s fourth quarter: 29 points conceded against Partizan;
• Kokila’s real minutes, six games missed before this return;
• Jokubaitis’s, a year without basketball before his;
• where Beauchamp and Norris fit into Gavel’s rotation.

The market has already paid for Kokila

The outright is 1.44 with Betano on Munich, about two chances in three, and Virtus’s best price has gone from 3.30 to 2.96 with 1xbet since opening. The 5.5-point handicap has barely moved: 1.98 with BetMGM for Bologna, close to a coin flip. Kokila’s return is in the price; it is not what makes me bet.

My bet: Virtus Bologna +5.5, half a unit

Recorded this morning and unmoved: I give Bologna 54% to finish within five points of Munich at the most, win included, overtime included. At 1.98 the scenario is priced fair: Munich lead for three quarters and crack in the fourth, or Bologna hold from start to finish.

The stake: half a unit, $50, for +$49 if it lands, -$50 otherwise. My edge on the market is real but light; the unit stake calculator crosses it with the market’s probability and comes out with half a unit, no more. The bet joins my public record, whatever happens. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

94-87: Bologna held from start to finish

Virtus won 94-87 in Munich without ever trailing. The first quarter made the game: 21-35, six of nine from three for Bologna, and Bayern spent the night chasing the score. They got back within four in the second half, Marcus Carr put nine back between the teams in the final minute, and the door closed.

Wendell Moore Jr carried his side: 20 points, 9 rebounds. Oscar da Silva and Duane Washington answered with 18 each, MarJon Beauchamp added 15 and 9 in 27 minutes. The two returns announced on the eve did not share the same fate: Beauchamp produced, Miles Norris stayed off the sheet, as Bayern’s official report notes, and Kokila’s comeback ran in slow gear: seven minutes, no points.

Bologna +5.5 at 1.98 with BetMGM, taken in the morning: won, with room, seven points at the buzzer. Half a unit ($50) returns $49. That was my 54 per cent scenario, Bologna holding all the way, when the market saw 49.5; the close, at 2.05, had even moved further away from the Italians. First European road win of the season for Virtus (2-2); Bayern drop a third straight game (1-3). The $49 goes on the public record.