Fourteen years on, Besiktas host Barcelona with the sharpest shooting in the EuroLeague

Besiktas had not played in the EuroLeague since 2012-13. Two rounds into their return among the twenty clubs, Istanbul leads the league in shooting: 49.2% from three, 55.5% from the field. On Friday evening the Turks host Barcelona with the market on their side. I took that price on Wednesday at 1.75; by Thursday it was already 1.72.

109 points at Maccabi, but a two-game sample

The return started badly: a 94-96 home defeat against Valencia, two points in it. A week later Besiktas went and won 109-93 at Maccabi, with a three-point shot that barely missed. That 49.2% from beyond the arc leads the championship; it is also the exact size of my doubt: two games do not make a season of shooting. Dusan Alimpijevic has already turned the page: “shift our focus to the Barcelona match”.

Sekulic’s Barcelona: eleven signings, Punter, and a thin frontcourt

Aleksander Sekulic is discovering the EuroLeague from the Barcelona bench, with a rebuilt team: eleven signings, four survivors from last season. The anchor is Kevin Punter, the league’s top scorer at 22 points a game. The talent is still Catalan; the depth is under construction.

The round 2 injury report confirms the work in the paint:

• Josh Nebo, calf, two to three weeks announced;
• Tosan Evbuomwan, shoulder;
• Yoan Makoundou, knee.

On the Besiktas side, DaQuan Jeffries has had wrist surgery, five to six weeks out, and Mady Sissoko is sidelined for a medical reason. Neither infirmary has cleared anyone on the eve of the game: the updated report still lists Yagiz Aksu (Besiktas) and Abdu Kone (Barcelona) as doubtful. The Turkish rotation is shorter than it looks.

The winner sleeps; the points line runs

On Wednesday evening I took Besiktas at 1.75 with Betano, when Barcelona were 2.25. By Thursday afternoon the winner market had barely moved: 1.72 at Betano, 2.30 at Unibet. Its one live movement is elsewhere: the main totals line has climbed from 169.5 to 171.5, and the over 171.5 has dropped from 2.45 to 1.95 at Bet365 in a day.

Nobody has explained it, and two rounds measure a pace badly: Besiktas games have produced 190 then 202 points, Barcelona’s 171 then 181. The main spread, 2.5 points, is priced 1.93 at 1xbet and 1.98 at Unibet: the market still sees a close game.

My bet: Besiktas to win, 0.75 units

My bet has been in since Wednesday evening: Besiktas to win, overtime included, at 1.75 with Betano. On Thursday the same selection is 1.72; my stake and I are not moving. My probability: 60%, three points above the market. The edge is thin, and the stake reflects it: 0.75 units, that is $75. Win, +$56.25; lose, -$75. Why so careful? The early-season 49.2% is worth two games, and Punter can blow up any reading on a hot night. The Kelly calculator converts this stake to your own bankroll; my public record will log the result, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

82 points: the shooting came back down, and my bet with it

Barcelona won 82-95 in Istanbul on Friday evening, taking the first three quarters: 25-17, 27-23, 25-22; Besiktas only saved the last one, 20-18, for pride. After 94 and then 109 points over the first two rounds, the Turks managed 82 on the night. The shooting that led the EuroLeague came back down to earth, and that was exactly the doubt that kept my stake small.

My bet is lost: Besiktas to win at 1.75 with Betano, 0.75 units, that is -$75 from my public bankroll. I gave the Turks 60%; the market gave them 57. The market read this game better than I did, and I am noting it without varnish.