Anadolu Efes have the numbers, Crvena Zvezda have Belgrade

Crvena Zvezda opened with a home defeat, 77-83 against Zalgiris. Anadolu Efes lost 82-89 in Barcelona. On Tuesday the two paths split: Zvezda lost again in Belgrade, 80-81 to Hapoel; Efes claimed their first win, 94-84 over Real Madrid, with 53 points by halftime.

The double week closes on Thursday at Belgrade Arena. Zvezda have lived through two home games and two defeats; their league game against Borac was postponed, so the week served as training. Efes arrive rolling and take their first road trip of the season, to Serbia.

An Efes with five scoring hands, a Zvezda turned upside down

Against Real, Efes won with five players in double figures: Dozier 18, Strazel 14, James 12, Loyd 12, Saric 10. Real had pulled back to 82-78 in the closing stretch; the Turks finished better. Laso and Dozier said it again after the game: this group has attacking potential and depth.

Zvezda won the rebounding battle (+13) and put together a late 10-1 run, but they conceded 28 points in the first quarter for the second game running, against a Hapoel side that turned the ball over only six times. Butler 19 points, Nwora 13, Carter 12; Motley stayed below par. Against Saric and Fernando the Serbian paint gets no easier, and the Turkish infirmary still weighs: Isaia Cordinier is back from surgery, Georgios Papagiannis tore the cruciate ligaments in his left knee, and the daily report gives neither a return date.

Navarro waits for his men, Laso counts his

Ibon Navarro laid down his rule in front of the Serbian press: no player at 50-50 if three fit men have to sit to make room. Real doubts remain: Nikola Djurisic (thigh, three to four weeks), Patrick Baldwin Jr., who missed the first two rounds but trained again on Monday, and Chima Moneke, who scored 9 points on Tuesday after being a doubt. The club has announced nothing for Thursday. Nwora put it plainly: the group is still learning Navarro’s rotations and off-ball movement.

For Efes, Pablo Laso leans on the backbone announced on opening night: Strazel, Mike James, Loyd, Saric and Fernando, with Dozier, Malcolm and K. Jones off the bench. The point-guard duel, Strazel and James against Carter and C. Jones, will set the tempo.

Last season Zvezda won in Belgrade and Istanbul

Zvezda lead the last five meetings three wins to two, and last season they won in Belgrade as well as Istanbul.

My bet: Zvezda, held despite Tuesday

I gave Zvezda 66% when I took the bet: their arena, zero travel this week, an Efes side missing two mainstays. Tuesday dented that reading without breaking it: Zvezda remain favourites of their own floor, a floor they have lost on twice. The market has barely moved: 1.542 with 1xbet on Wednesday, about 64%, and seven bookmakers on the game; the main handicap, Zvezda -4.5, is priced 1.92/1.94. The total has drifted from 167.5 to 168 points on the main line.

My bet is registered and it does not move: Zvezda to win at 1.52 with Betano, overtime included, minimum stake, 0.25 units, $25. Zvezda win: +$13 on $25 staked; Efes take it: -$25. The price pays for the Serbian context, not the play produced; the stake was already the smallest and I keep it. The site’s Kelly calculator explains why it stays low, and the bet goes on my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Zvezda defends home court: 77-72

Zvezda’s first win of the season, over an Efes side coming down from its 94 points against Real. One hundred and forty-nine points in total, far from the 168 line on offer before tip-off: the Serbian context paid, more than the play. Both teams sit on one win and two defeats after three rounds.

My bet on Zvezda to win at 1.52 with Betano lands: 0.25 units, $25 staked, $13 in profit. I took it with no edge on the market, hence the minimum stake; this time the arena made the difference.