Maccabi host Besiktas in Belgrade, in an arena that cheers for nobody

Scottie Wilbekin played 124 games for Maccabi between 2018 and 2022, and started 123 of them. On Wednesday evening he walks into his old club wearing a different shirt, Besiktas’s, in an arena where nobody is really at home: Maccabi host at the Aleksandar Nikolic Hall in Belgrade, where the EuroLeague has relocated the Israeli clubs. Two teams at 0-1 are chasing a first win there.

The two clubs have not met since 2012-13, when Maccabi took both games (77-55 in Istanbul, 101-58 in Tel Aviv). Besiktas are back in the EuroLeague for the first time in thirteen seasons.

Belgrade, a home game on paper only

Since the flat opening defeat at ASVEL (74-84 on 24 September), Maccabi have not played another European game: between the two rounds they beat Kiryat Ata 109-61 in the Winner Cup quarter-final, a game that says nothing about this level. Besiktas have lost three in a row in three competitions: the Super Cup against Fenerbahçe (59-72), the EuroLeague against Valencia (94-96, at home), the league against Anadolu Efes (81-95). Their coach Alimpijevic said it after the Valencia game: “we are very far from the defence we want to play, we have to show a very different face”.

Maccabi are living this “home” game like a road trip: final training at Hadar Yosef, then the flight to Belgrade and a shooting session on game day.

Jeffries operated on, Korkmaz in doubt

The absences weigh heavier on the Turkish side, and they are not all equal:

• DaQuan Jeffries (Besiktas): operated on his left wrist after fracturing a bone in round 1, out for an indefinite period. A confirmed absence.
• Furkan Korkmaz (Besiktas): a calf problem since returning from national-team duty, short of full fitness in the Super Cup and left on the bench against Valencia, the coach’s decision; the club has said nothing about tonight. Doubtful, not out.
• Maccabi: the official round-2 injury report names nobody for this game, with neither club having filed a medical report. Hunter did not play at ASVEL, no reason given; Lavi remains doubtful and Leaf is listed as available in the press only. Jimmy Clark III, who missed the Israeli Super Cup, did come back in round 1.

The Turkish production rests on four names: Nowell and Omoruyi scored 17 points each against Valencia, Morgan 15, and Wilbekin added 12 points and 5 assists, with Zizic and Gabriel inside. Without Jeffries, Alimpijevic has one card fewer to rotate.

What the price says

The market believes in Maccabi: 1.52 at 1xbet on Wednesday morning, about two chances in three, against 2.72 for Besiktas. On the main line, Maccabi -4.5 trades at 1.91 and Besiktas +4.5 at 1.95, a price that has not moved since it opened. The favourite has even firmed slightly, from 1.53 to 1.52, and no new absence explains the move: nothing has changed on either roster since this morning.

For the market, Belgrade is enough: an administrative home court, a deeper roster, a logical win. The arena itself gives them nothing: no crowd of their own for Maccabi, and a team that has yet to show anything in this EuroLeague. I prefer the line to the outright: at 1.52 the Maccabi win pays nothing, and the handicap lets the game decide.

Besiktas +4.5: cover, do not overturn

My pick: Besiktas +4.5 points at 1.95 with 1xbet. It wins if Besiktas take the game or lose by one to four points: +$23.75 on a $25 stake. It loses if the gap reaches five points or more: -$25. Overtime included.

I do not see Besiktas winning this game: 2.72 is not my scenario. But the talent gap between the two rotations does not look like five points in a neutral arena. Jeffries out and a defence criticised by its own coach count against Besiktas; that is why I take them with the four and a half points, not on their own.

I make the cover 52%; the 1.95 price implies 51.3%. That gap is too thin: the market has read this game well and I have no edge worth paying for. Minimum stake, 0.25 units, $25. If Maccabi break it open by half-time on their depth, the line is worth nothing. To weigh your own probability and the stake that goes with it, the Kelly calculator does the maths; my results, wins and losses, are on the public record.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Besiktas never needed the four and a half points

Final score: 93-109. Besiktas take it by sixteen in Belgrade, the scenario I had ruled out at 2.72. My Besiktas +4.5 at 1.95 with 1xbet wins without ever needing the line: +$23.75 on a $25 stake.

On the arena, I was right: this home game in Belgrade gave Maccabi nothing. On the rotations, I was wrong: the gap I read as under five finished at sixteen, in Besiktas’s favour. The cover wins, which is all the pick asked for; the outright paid 2.72. The $23.75 goes on the record as it is.