Milan score 79.5 points a game, Real Madrid are still learning Pedro Martínez

Same record after four rounds, one win and three defeats. The two giants meet at the Unipol Forum on Tuesday with the same points in the bank and opposite moods: Milan keep piling up bad nights and the fans already want the coach gone, Real Madrid have just won for the first time under Pedro Martínez. My bet does not try to pick a winner out of this mess: I take under 174.5 points.

79.5 points a game is Milan’s whole problem

Milan score 79.5 points a game in the EuroLeague, almost seven fewer than Real Madrid (86.3), grab 34.8 rebounds, post a collective PIR of 86. In Tel Aviv on Thursday, same ceiling: 79 points, a 79-97 defeat against Maccabi. Giuseppe Poeta admitted his side let the last quarter go and that the rebuilding is taking longer than expected. The Italian press called it a « brutta, bruttissima serata ». The club has calmed things down: full confidence in Peppe Poeta, denying the rumours of a sacking.

The individual numbers do not add up to a team scoring 90: M. Wright leads Milan at 19.0 PIR (14.2 points, 7.0 rebounds), D. Hall follows at 14.0, A. Peters adds 11.5 points.

Real’s first win was relief, not a statement

The worst start in the club’s EuroLeague history, three defeats, then Thursday’s turning point: 86-76 against Partizan at the Movistar Arena. The lead was built in the first half (53-37), Maledon scored 13, Campazzo 12, Tavares posted 14 PIR, ten players scored five or more. The closing stretch was loose. Martínez, who took over from Scariolo, is imposing close to the opposite style and rotates heavily: this team is still learning its coach, and it has not won on the road yet. On Sunday it rolled in the domestic league: 120-83 over Manresa in Liga Endesa. The number impresses, but it came in the Spanish league, not the EuroLeague.

• Stefano Tonut (bruised left hand) remains the only Milan absentee: the official round 5 report, published on Monday, added nothing, with neither club having sent an update. Marko Guduric is back after a few days away for the birth of his daughter.
• Usman Garuba (Achilles tendon) is still out for Real; Gabriel Deck, hurt in his left shoulder on 6 October, is a worry: Martínez spoke on 11 October of an injury more serious than expected, with no diagnosis or return date.
• Madrid’s rotations stay heavy: who closes the last quarters is anyone’s guess, and that is where the total can swing.

At 1.53, Real are already well priced

Real trade at 1.53 on the moneyline at BetMGM, almost two chances in three. The main spread, plus or minus 4.5, is offered at 1.93 on both sides: the market knows Madrid win, it does not know by how much. I am not buying that uncertainty. The total is what interests me: the main line sits at 175 points and the 174.5 version pays 1.96 at 1xbet, recorded this weekend.

I take under 174.5, half a unit

I give 54 % to a total of 174 points or fewer, overtime included, where the odds imply just under 51 %. Milan do not score enough to drag a game towards 180, Real are still digesting their coach, and the way they managed the lead against Partizan showed a team protecting a cushion rather than pushing for more. The calculated stake is 0.5 unit, $50: won, +$48.05; over the line, -$50. How the stake follows the conviction is here; the result will join my public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Real wake the attack, the line dies in the last quarter

Real Madrid win 98-89 in Milan, with 63 points across the second and third quarters: 15-32, then 27-31. Leandro Bolmaro kept Milan alive with 21, Theo Maledon had 16 for Madrid: the full box score.

My bet is lost, and both my reads went at once: Milan, 79.5 points a game, scored 89; Real, running at 86.3, put up 98. The team I had managing its lead stretched it instead, and the 174.5 line died in the last quarter: 151 points after three, 23 more at most would have saved it, the fourth brought 36. Under 174.5 points at 1.96 with 1xbet, 0.5 units, -$50.