Olympiacos vs Anadolu Efes: life without Mike James begins in Piraeus

Efes learn to live without Mike James

Round 4 of the EuroLeague is played on Friday at the Sunel Arena, the Piraeus hall renamed through sponsorship. The reigning champions host Anadolu Efes, and the trip boils down to one fact: Mike James ruptured his Achilles tendon in Belgrade in Round 3, had surgery on 2 October, and is out for seven to nine months. Istanbul’s creator will not play again this season.

The club signed Cameron Payne, late of Partizan, to fill the void. A point guard arrives, the creation is rebuilt: Papagiannis and Cordinier are still listed out in Istanbul, and Efes lean in an emergency on Dario Saric, their best player (18.0 PIR over three rounds).

2-1 against 1-2, and duels that stay tight

The Greeks beat Baskonia (106-89) and Zalgiris (93-91) before falling at Virtus (94-96). Efes took down Real Madrid (94-84), then gave way against Zvezda (72-77) and Barcelona. The last five meetings, with Efes leading three wins to two:

Three of the five were decided by four points or fewer. In this rivalry, every point of margin costs.

Milutinov in sight, Hall in doubt

The week’s news is Greek: Nikola Milutinov, written off with tendinitis, rejoined the squad for the domestic league game on 4 October, and the Greek press has him on his way back for Friday. I will only count him in once he is on the teamsheet.

The paint keeps its unknowns. Donta Hall flew to the United States for a personal matter, due back on Thursday, and his participation is unclear; Nikos Plotas, nursing an elbow injury, could be out for weeks. Jean Montero remains a doubt after his virus, and Cory Joseph has been back since Round 3. The engine rolls on: Vezenkov averages 20.0 points and a 26.3 PIR, Dorsey 19.0 points and 3.7 three-pointers, Miller-McIntyre 6.7 assists.

• Milutinov’s actual return: if he plays, Olympiacos get their full frontcourt rotation back; if not, Dunston holds the paint alone against Fernando and Jones.
• Donta Hall’s status, back from the United States on Thursday: the Greek bench needs his minutes at the 5.
• Cameron Payne’s first minutes in an Istanbul shirt: the creation will be split between him, Loyd and Strazel, and the newcomer’s tempo will decide the possessions.

What the market says

Olympiacos have shortened from 1.275 to 1.202: the market has counted Istanbul’s absentees. Efes stand at 5.25. On Thursday the main spread line holds at -10.5 and the total at 172.5, almost balanced: the market doubts the pace, not the winner.

My pick: Olympiacos -10.5, measured conviction

I take Olympiacos -10.5 points at 1.98 with BetMGM (price taken on Monday), a quarter unit ($25) for $24.50 of profit, overtime included. I make it 52 per cent for a margin of eleven points or more: without James, Efes lose the hot possessions, and a returning Milutinov would strengthen the Greek paint. But Hall is up in the air, no lineup is confirmed, and these duels often tighten in the last quarter. Hence the minimum stake. The unit stake is set with the Kelly calculator; the pick joins my public record, won or lost. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

The third quarter took it all

Olympiacos won 89-66, and the game was strangled coming out of the locker rooms: a 19-5 run to open the third quarter, twelve offensive rebounds by half-time, and an Efes side back within four at the break (35-31) simply stopped existing. Jean Montero led the Greeks with 16 points, all twelve players on the sheet scored, and the defending champions won their first game in their renamed Piraeus home. Cameron Payne hit two threes in an 8-0 run on his debut, but Efes never led once.

My Olympiacos -10.5 at 1.98 with BetMGM clears untouched: a 23-point margin. The win follows the minimum stake, $24.50 on a quarter unit, little for a gap like that. I wrote these duels tighten in the last quarter; this one was done by the third, and my caution mostly cost me profit.