Twenty turnovers against Partizan: Paris welcome a Žalgiris side favoured at 1.675

Tuesday’s game against Partizan comes down to three numbers: 79-92, twenty turnovers, 11 of 30 from three. Hifi, Paris’s top scorer with 19 points, had seven of those turnovers on his own. Since the opening round, Paris score 75.5 points a game and concede 91.5. The team runs, and loses the ball while running.

Kaunas held Olympiacos, Paris held nobody

Žalgiris won 83-77 at Crvena Zvezda, then lost 91-93 at home on Tuesday to an Olympiacos they held until money time: Fournier was decisive in the closing minutes, Tubelis scored 22, Sterling Brown 20. Over two rounds, the PIR leans 31.5 points per game towards the Lithuanians. The form reads quickly:

Lithuanian backcourt cut down, six Parisians in doubt

The 30 September medical report does not change the picture:

• Williams-Goss: hamstring, out until round 4, confirmed.
• Saben Lee: strain, still questionable for Thursday; Akobundu-Ehiogu is too.
• Paris: nobody listed out, but six players remain questionable in the report, all rested on Tuesday by the coach’s choice.

Masiulis’s rotation has not shortened: twelve players used in Serbia, Sirvydis back in the group. And Paris won elsewhere: 78-73 at Nancy on Sunday, 23 points from Hifi, 12 minutes for Ntilikina’s Betclic debut. Now they need to do it in the EuroLeague.

Three of the last four for Kaunas, a 211-point precedent

Žalgiris lead 3-1 over the last four meetings. The most recent, on 11 December in Kaunas, finished 105-108, 211 points in total. Both teams like to run; only one protects the ball. The Paris club is promising an attacking duel. I am less sure about the duel than about the outcome.

Lefèvre, a third head coach in twelve months

Maxime Lefèvre is the club’s third head coach in twelve months, after Tabellini and a Thomas caretaker spell. A locker room that has changed its message every three months does not absorb a system in three weeks. Across the floor, Masiulis wants a high tempo for forty minutes and says himself it is hard to sustain; his wide rotation, so far, answers.

Kaunas drifts, the stake stays minimal

The bet stays at 1.675 with 1xbet, the price it was taken at. The market has moved towards Paris: Kaunas 1.703 with 1xbet in Wednesday’s prices, Paris 2.27 with Betano. Paris have already beaten this Žalgiris anyway, 83-82 at the London Invitational on 10 September, without Saben Lee or Sirvydis for the Lithuanians; it was preseason, and the market has moved the same way since Tuesday.

I still give Kaunas a 62% chance. Two rounds are two rounds: blended with the market, my edge melts, and the stake stays minimal, 0.25 units ($25). Žalgiris win, overtime included: +$16.88. Paris win: -$25. The total line has slipped from 178.5 to 177; at 75.5 points scored a game, Paris do not promise a festival, which is why I stay on the winner. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose. The Kelly calculator sets the stake, my public record will take the result.

Paris take their first: 82-78

Paris win 82-78 and grab their first EuroLeague victory, in front of their own crowd. One hundred and sixty points in total, well under the 177 line: the low tempo I read was the right one, the winner was not. Kaunas take a second straight defeat, and both teams leave the round on one win and two defeats.

My bet on Žalgiris at 1.675 with 1xbet loses: 0.25 units, $25 staked, $25 down. I made Kaunas 62% while the market was already drifting towards Paris; they had the momentum and the home floor. The tempo read held, the winner read did not.