Partizan – Crvena Zvezda: Zvezda on four straight wins, Partizan without its pivots

Tonye Jekiri strained his groin against Fenerbahçe on 15 October; Derek Willis is not back before the end of the month. The eternal derby arrives on Thursday in a sold-out Belgrade Arena, and Peñarroya confirmed it on Wednesday: “There will be twelve Partizan players on the floor on Thursday, no excuse.” Translated from Serbian.

Four wins on one side, twelve players on the other

Zvezda, 4-2, ride a four-game winning run, three of them in the EuroLeague, and beat Paris 90-81 last time out. They lead the league on the boards, 248 rebounds, and score 80.8 points a game against Partizan’s 77.7. Partizan, 3-3, have dropped their last two European rounds, against Panathinaikos and then Fenerbahçe.

A frontcourt cut down to twelve

Willis and Jekiri will both miss it, confirmed by their head coach. The load stays on Kevarrius Hayes and the big men Tanasković and Lauvergne, in a squad of fifteen registered cut to twelve. Marinković (Achilles) is not ready yet: two to three more weeks by Peñarroya’s count, on a tendon he calls “in perfect shape”. Lamar Stevens, out in round six, has no confirmed status.

• Zvezda: Izundu is back, fifteen minutes against Krka in the ABA league, and lines up as the interior weapon of the derby alongside Odželej; Koloko will not be on the sheet, his debut is expected this weekend at Igokea.
• Miljenović (ankle) has not played for two rounds; Motley (thigh) stays out since round four.
• The official injury report for the round still holds nothing from either club: statuses for 22 October confirm at tip-off.

The derby has tightened

This Wednesday the best prices have Partizan at 2.02 with Unibet and Zvezda at 1.95 with Betano: close to a coin flip. Sportal has dated the flip: opened at 1.60-1.77 for Partizan and 2.05-2.15 for Zvezda, the prices swung to 1.80-2.05 and 1.80-1.90, a move the press puts on the context, not on a single dated fact. The main handicap line stays at one point, the total at 164.5.

The bet: Zvezda +1.5 at 1.83

Derbies are often one-point games. I take Zvezda +1.5 at 1.83 with BetMGM, 58% my way. Zvezda win or lose by a single point and the bet lands: $41.50 net on a $50 stake. A defeat by two points or more wipes it out.

Zvezda’s +1.5 line paid 2.35 at the open, 1.83 today: the price gap behind the bet has closed most of the way, and the stake stays as recorded. Zvezda live off rebounds and second chances, which is exactly what Partizan can no longer feed without their pivots; Peñarroya answers that “in a derby, streaks do not count”. 0.5 units. The bet joins the public record, and the staking method set it at $50. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

85-82 in overtime: the bet dies on Pajola’s three

Partizan beat Zvezda 85-82, but only in overtime, and the bet survived all 40 minutes of regulation. 52-38 at half-time, eighteen points apart early in the third, Zvezda came back through the fourth, 25-10: 75-75 at the buzzer. They even led 82-79 in the extra period; Carlik Jones tied it from three, Alessandro Pajola followed: 85-82 with 17 seconds left. Partizan did not foul, Zvezda never got a shot off before the buzzer.

Carlik Jones carried the game: 26 points, 5 assists and a 28 PIR in 37 minutes. Without Willis and Jekiri, Kevarrius Hayes held the paint: 13 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks. Chris Jones scored 22 for Zvezda, Nwora 16 and 8 rebounds. The four-game winning run stops there. The BasketNews report has the rest.

The pick is lost: Zvezda +1.5 at 1.83 with BetMGM dies on that three-point margin. A $50 loss, the half unit, on the public record.