Real Madrid vs Partizan Mozzart Bet: 0-3 on the road, and nothing at home yet

Dubai, Istanbul, Tel Aviv: three road trips, three defeats. Real Madrid are living through the worst start to a EuroLeague season in their history, and the Movistar Arena has not seen a second of it. The home opener lands on Thursday night, against one of the unbeaten teams.

A 0-3 built away from Madrid

The detail changes the reading. The three losses all came on the road, in Dubai, Istanbul and then Tel Aviv, against sides that matter early this season. And this is still the team that lifted the EuroLeague Super Cup against Olympiacos in Dubai at the start of the campaign. Pedro Martínez, the coach who arrived this summer, has not yet shown his team to its own crowd. “A 0-3 at home for them should not mislead us: they won the Super Cup, and their three defeats came on the road, against good teams,” warned Peñarroya, his opposite number at Partizan.

Partizan, the numbers behind the surprise

Across the floor, a Partizan side at 3-0 that owes nothing to the schedule: Milan beaten 92-76, Paris 92-79, then Bayern 86-84. Thirty-nine steals in three games, the best total in the competition, for the fourth-ranked defence. Peñarroya’s project, started in December 2025 with eight new players, runs through Carlik Jones (18.7 points, 6.7 assists), the Round 1 MVP, and Tonye Jekiri (13 points); the Spanish press already calls them one of the big surprises of the season.

A thinner group, a heavier schedule

The catch: the Serbian rotation keeps shrinking while the games pile up. Joan Peñarroya confirmed on Tuesday that Lamar Stevens (hand) and Derek Willis stay out of the squad, with a medical picture “broadly unchanged”; the minutes were managed against Mega in the ABA on Monday, before the flight to Spain. This is Partizan’s fourth match in nine days, and six of their first nine EuroLeague rounds are away games.

• Partizan: Marinković (Achilles tendon) is still missing; Lauvergne is back.
• For Madrid, Usman Garuba (Achilles tendon) is out; Sarr and Shulga stayed out of the twelve in previous games, and Llull and Procida did not travel on the road: none of that says anything about a home game, to be confirmed at tip-off.

Nine straight wins for Madrid, ten points of line

Real remain the bogey team for the Serbs: nine straight wins in the fixture, 93-86 in Madrid last season, and Partizan have not won at the Movistar Arena since spring 2023. Peñarroya names Walter Tavares as the dominant force on the Madrid side. The market has priced all of it in, and has pushed further since the analysis went up: 1.25 with Unibet for Madrid (opened at 1.22), 4.80 with BetMGM for Partizan, the main handicap line moved from −9 to −10, the main total up to 174.5.

I do not argue with the bounce in front of their own crowd; I argue with the margin. A Partizan side that lives off its steals stays in close games. When I took the bet, the main line sat at −9: my +9.5 bought half a point of cushion. It has moved to −10; the recorded pick does not move, and that half point now plays against it. I still make the visitors 54% to win or lose by nine points or fewer; at 1.91 with 1xbet, the price implies just over 52. The edge is small, and so is the stake: 0.25 units, $25, and the Kelly calculator says the same. It pays +$22.75; it costs $25 if Real win by ten points or more, overtime included.

The pick goes into my public record, win or lose. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

86-76: Real Madrid’s first win, by half a point too many

Real Madrid finally won, 86-76, in their first home game of the season. The match was settled before half-time: a 20-3 across the first two quarters, 53-37 at the break, up to twenty points. Partizan reacted after the locker room, back to 60-54 in the 26th minute; an Okeke three and six straight points killed the comeback.

Theo Maledon led the winners (13 points, 7 of 7 from the line), Campazzo added 12; Tavares, called the dominant force on the eve by Peñarroya, finished at 8 points and 8 rebounds. At the other end, Carlik Jones carried again: 19 points, his team’s first eight among them, and Ethan Thompson 14 with 8 rebounds. The detail that made the margin: ten misses from twenty-seven free throws on the Serbian side, without Stevens, Willis or Marinković; Real played without the injured Deck.

My Partizan +9.5 at 1.91 with 1xbet fell by half a point: Real won by ten, the line asked for nine and a half. I noted yesterday that the line moving from −9 to −10 was playing against the registered pick; it played to the last point. The Madrid reaction I never disputed happened, and the margin I did dispute spared nothing. $25 lost, on the record; Real open their win column (1-3), and Partizan (3-1) stay near the top.