Valencia Basket v Baskonia: Shorts can test a defence still under repair

On Sunday, iLERNA Lleida came and won at the Roig Arena in the Liga Endesa opener. On Tuesday, the same arena hosts Baskonia for Valencia’s first European home game. That defeat cools the handicap; my bet on the winner, placed on Sunday night, stands.

In Burgos, Baskonia won the game and lost the rebound

Baskonia edged Burgos 97-98, coming back from nine points down in the last three minutes. The survival lesson hides the number that says everything: 22 offensive rebounds conceded, against only 23 defensive rebounds taken. A team giving away that many second chances in the league will give them away in the EuroLeague too, and Olympiacos already cashed in.

Paolo Galbiati left Burgos relieved, happy with Faried and Baugh, but he admits the squad still needs completing: only four academy players remain after Rafa Villar and Khalifa Diop left. Markus Howard has offered only a few brushstrokes since the official season began, and Sedekerskis arrives from 15 points against Olympiacos after a brief physical scare.

Valencia show two faces

The Lleida defeat comes two days before the European date, and it was the first at home this season. Xavi Albert’s group showed the other face in Istanbul: a 94-96 win decided at the death, closed by TJ Shorts after six straight points from Nikola Mirotić.

Shorts finished with 26, Mirotić with 13 and Kam Taylor with 12, according to the EuroLeague report. Stopping Shorts alone will not be enough if the ball swings out clean, and that is exactly the test for a Baskonia defence in repair.

• For Valencia, Gonzalo Corbalán, Lucas Marí and Yankuba Sima are doubtful; they did not travel to Istanbul.
• The round 1 doubts over Mirotić, Rivero and Sako look cleared: Mirotić played against Lleida on Sunday.
• For Baskonia, Pedro Souza is a coach’s decision; no injured player is listed.

The two European openers and the trip to Burgos:

At 1.31 I keep Valencia, and the market followed

Valencia to win at 1.31 with Betano, 1 unit ($100): my pick, recorded on Sunday night, and it stands. Since then the market has taken the same road: Valencia 1.28 with BetMGM on Monday, Baskonia drifting to 4.00 with Bet365, the spread up to −7 and the total to 182. At 1.31 the price asks for 76.3%; I make Valencia 78%. The Baskonia rebounding crisis comforts me, the Lleida defeat reminds me that favourites also lose at home: that is why the stake stays at 1 unit.

The Kelly calculator puts that gap in context; the result will join my public record, loss included. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

111-88: Valencia settled it in ten minutes

26-10 after the first quarter, 52-33 at the break: Valencia ran away early at the Roig Arena in front of 12,156 fans, with 13 threes from 27 against 6 for Baskonia. Armoni Brooks led the scoring (17 points, 4 of 7 from deep), TJ Shorts paired 12 points with 10 assists. Baskonia lost 17 balls to Valencia’s 11, and Tadas Sedekerskis’s 16 points changed nothing.

My one-unit bet on Valencia, taken at 1.31 with Betano, has won: +$31. At that price the job was to win, and Valencia won by 23. The close, 1.28, had shortened the favourite further; the game itself was never close after the first quarter.