Valencia vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: Valencia unbeaten, Hapoel won here last season

The Roig Arena opens its doors for Hapoel this time, named tickets and ID checks; last season’s visit was played behind closed doors. On the floor, Valencia carry a perfect record: three wins in three EuroLeague games, 104 points a game, the best attack in the competition. This home game still tastes of revenge.

Hapoel have already won in this arena

Last season each side won on the other’s floor: Hapoel left the Roig with a 93-100 win, behind 24 points from Micic, and Valencia took the return leg 99-104 in Tel Aviv. Further back, Hapoel knocked Valencia out of the EuroCup semi-finals in 2024-25, a series decided in game three (2-1). The start of this season belongs to Valencia; recent history does not.

Two forms, two ways of winning

Valencia come back from an 18-point comeback at ASVEL; Hapoel have stacked two statement wins, at Crvena Zvezda and then against Real Madrid, carried by Bryant, MVP of the last two rounds at 28.0 PIR. The Israeli club “hosts” its home games in Sofia this season: this match is one more trip. The first three rounds in a table:

Toppin and Coffey are back in training

Jacob Toppin and Amir Coffey, injured and out of the last game, are back in practice, and the Israeli press expects both available on Thursday. With no official roster yet, I count them as probable returns, not certain ones.

• For Valencia, Mirotic, Rivero and Saka have all played recent games; Sima, left out of the twelve, remains doubtful, and Cardenas has missed the last two rosters on a coach’s decision.
• For Hapoel, Ennis (Achilles tendon), Ginat (knee) and Blatt, dropped from the group, were still out on Monday; nothing new since.

The bet: Valencia −1.5

The market has followed the Valencia reading: both sides opened at 2.00, Valencia now trade at 1.83 with BetMGM and Hapoel at 2.20 with Bet365, and the main handicap line has moved from −1.5 to −2. My pick, recorded this morning with the analysis, does not move: Valencia −1.5 at 1.97 with Unibet. At 1.83 the straight win leaves nothing on the table; at 1.97, the same conviction pays 14 points more per $100 staked.

I still make Valencia 55% to win by at least two points; the price implies a touch over 50. Hapoel get two men back, but they stay short-handed, face one more trip, and they have already won at the Roig: hence a middle-sized stake, 0.75 units, $75. Won: +$72.75. Lost: −$75 if Valencia win by a single point or lose, overtime included. The Kelly calculator breaks the stake down, and the pick goes into my public record. No second bet: the main total sits at 180 and I have no read on the pace to follow it. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

93-82: revenge taken, Blakeney was not enough

Valencia won 93-82 at the Roig Arena, a year after Hapoel’s 93-100 in the same room. The game turned after half-time: from 47-40, Valencia ran to +18 (74-56) in five minutes of third quarter, on a streak of outside shots, Puerto’s among them. Hapoel got back to 89-82 with two minutes left; Osetkowski answered with the three that closed the game.

Antonio Blakeney did what he could, alone: 30 points, 8 of 11 from three, no teammate beyond 12. At the other end, depth settled everything: Taylor 17 points, Shorts 15, and the bench held. Toppin, back, played (5 points); Ennis was still out.

Valencia −1.5 at 1.97 with Unibet, taken in the morning: won, and wide, eleven points for a one-and-a-half line. The 0.75 units ($75) return $72.75. The market had come to Valencia after the bet, the close at 1.91: the read was right, and so was the price, taken before the move. Valencia remain unbeaten, 4-0, one of the two left alongside Panathinaikos, level with their best start in the competition; Hapoel fall to 2-2. The $72.75 goes on the public record.