Valencia blew a twenty-eight point lead on Tuesday; Maccabi arrive with no fixed home

+28 gone, the 4-1 record stays

A twenty-eight point lead, Tuesday night at the Roig Arena. At the end: 97-102 after overtime, and the biggest comeback the league has seen since 2007. Valencia still sit second, 4-1, 495 points scored against 446 conceded. Maccabi drag along in eighteenth, 1-4, 418 scored against 452 conceded.

The club announce a full roster for Thursday, their third game in five days and only the second at home: the trip to the Palau Blaugrana last Sunday (86-89), Olympiacos on Tuesday at the Roig Arena, Maccabi on Thursday. UCAM Murcia in the Liga only arrive next Sunday, this run digested. The legs hold; what Valencia lose are the ends of games.

A Maccabi side with no home, but not without resources

On Thursday Maccabi play away. As they nearly always do: the club are preparing their move from Belgrade to the Spyros Kyprianou Arena in Limassol, Cyprus, first game announced for 22 October against Real Madrid, and sources still disagree on the date. The locker room has other worries: frustrated by the refereeing in Barcelona, the club will ask the EuroLeague officiating directorate for explanations, and they keep hunting for an outside reinforcement.

The Barcelona game was still their best outing: 87-90, lost on a J. Robinson three with 1.6 seconds left, with 22 points from Yam Madar, his EuroLeague career high. Around the Roig Arena, access is by name only, ID required.

Three games in five days, and a tempo to hold

“It won’t be easy, even more intense: we will have to steal in defence, control the rebound and show character, because it is a hard place to play”, Katash warns. Will Rayman sees the same game: Valencia “play at a very high tempo and pack a big punch”. On the Valencia side they only talk about recovery, before “repeating the first half against Olympiacos, defending better”.

• Yam Madar (bruised tailbone) only managed a partial session; the decision comes just before tip-off.
• The Valencia legs: third game in five days, and Katash talks about widening his rotation, “we will need fresh legs”.
• Turnovers: the club warn that Maccabi own the second-best two-point percentage in the competition.

My pick: Valencia -6.5 at 1.91

The market has ruled Valencia’s way: 1.35 against an opening 1.42; Maccabi have drifted from 3.10 to 3.75. The main handicap line, -7.5, is balanced at 2.05/2.05. I take one step of safety: Valencia -6.5, at 1.91 with 888Sport on Wednesday evening. I make a win by seven points or more 57% likely, against 52.5% for the market’s median line. The edge survives the site’s cautious blending: 1.25 units, $125, my biggest stake of the evening. Valencia win by seven or more: +$113.75 net; anything else, $125 down. Overtime included.

Tuesday’s collapse gave me pause: a team that gives away twenty-eight points can give away seven. But that was Olympiacos, the champions; on Thursday it is a Maccabi side whose best player, Madar, is doubtful until tip-off. And if the game tightens, the tempo stays Valencia’s: an expected total of 183 points points to an open game. To size the stake to your hand, the Kelly calculator does the maths; this bet lands in my public record, win or lose.

18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

Maccabi strike early, Valencia fold in the fourth

Maccabi won 91-88 at the Roig Arena in front of 10,361, and the pick is lost. Valencia were down 31-23 after ten minutes, climbed back, even led 72-71 going into the fourth. The last quarter took everything: 20-16 to Maccabi, sixteen Valencia points, and seventeen from Jimmy Clark for the visitors.

That is Valencia’s third defeat in five days across competitions: Barcelona on Sunday at the Palau Blaugrana, Olympiacos on Tuesday after twenty-eight points of lead surrendered, Maccabi on Thursday at the Roig Arena. Valencia stopped at 88 points, nine fewer than Tuesday, 179 in total, under the line of 184. The tempo I put in the balance never held, and neither did the ending: sixteen points in the last quarter.

Valencia -6.5 at 1.91 with 888Sport is lost, and it takes my biggest stake of the evening with it: $125. Taken at 1.91, the handicap hardened to -8 by tip-off: good price, bad game. I made Valencia 57% to win by seven or more, the market 52.5%; at 3.75 Maccabi were worth more than that. A team that can blow a twenty-eight point lead can also lose by three; I wrote it and did not believe it enough.