Unbeaten Valencia host champions Olympiacos at the Roig Arena

Valencia have not lost a EuroLeague game yet. On Tuesday at the Roig Arena the visitor is Olympiacos, the reigning European champions. Bartzokas knows what is coming: “the best attack in the EuroLeague, first in tempo, second in three-point shooting”, he said on Monday. I still see a tight game, and I keep Valencia +2.5.

Four wins, and a Palau defeat that stings

Valencia won all four: 96-94 at Besiktas, 111-88 over Baskonia, 92-105 at ASVEL after trailing by eighteen, 93-82 against Hapoel Tel-Aviv. Second in the table, +49. Sunday brought the only wrong note: an 89-86 defeat at the Palau Blaugrana in the ACB, in a game decided by details. Nikola Mirotic, who arrived from Monaco, and TJ Shorts, 17.5 points and 6.3 assists, the team’s best PIR at 19.8, carry the attack.

The champions doubt, and say so

Winners over Efes 89-66 on Thursday, beaten once, at Virtus (96-94), Olympiacos eased past Kolossos 99-83 on Sunday in the GBL, with Jean Montero, who played for Valencia last season, named MVP of the game and back at the Roig Arena. But Bartzokas swept nothing aside: five consecutive turnovers in the third quarter, a lack of concentration, and the demand to stay compact in defence before Valencia. On Monday, before flying to Spain, he admitted: “we are far from what we imagine we can play”. The day was video and individual sessions, nothing more. Vezenkov, 17.3 points and 21.5 PIR, remains the engine.

• Sixteen Greek players flew to Valencia, George Papas included; only Plotas (elbow, around six weeks out) and the young Bourneles stayed behind in Greece.
• Donta Hall splits the reports: ready according to BasketNews, absent for personal reasons elsewhere. The same blur on the Valencia side around Saint-Supéry: ill last week, on court in the ACB on Sunday, and still listed as absent by one site. I will decide at the warm-up, not on an injury list.
• Guèye, Lucas Mari and Sima remain outside the rotation by the coach’s choice, not through injury.
• Both schedules stay tight: Valencia host Maccabi on 15 October, Olympiacos travel to Barcelona on the 16th.

At 1.67, the favourite travels

Since opening, the Greek win has shortened from 1.73 to 1.67 at 1xbet: the market has hardened for the champions. Valencia trade at 2.30 at BetMGM. On the main spread, +2.5 pays up to 2.00 at 888Sport on Monday, the best price of the moment; my ticket, taken on Monday, stays at 1.93 at 1xbet. The last five meetings went three times to Valencia, including 85-84 and 99-92 last season.

Valencia +2.5: 0.25 unit

I still give 54 % to Valencia winning or losing by two points or fewer, overtime included, where the odds imply barely 51. Nothing in the last 24 hours moves me: a favourite who says out loud that his team is far from its level is still a favourite worth challenging on the spread; the depth of the champions stops me calling an upset. Blended with the market, the edge is tiny: minimum stake, 0.25 unit, $25, won +$23.25, lost -$25. The method is here, and the bet will join the public record. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose.

From 28 points down, Olympiacos wins in overtime

Olympiacos takes it 102-97, after winning overtime 12-7. Valencia ran the game for twenty-two minutes: 31-17 after the first quarter, 59-34 at halftime, all the way to 62-34 in minute 22. The third quarter turned it, 25-12 to the Greeks; regulation closed at 90-90, and overtime on a five-point margin.

Bartzokas had called his team “far” from its level: it was for half an hour, long enough to lose its coach in minute 32, ejected on two technicals. The depth I refused to ignore took the ball back: Evan Fournier scoreless at the break then 23 points, Jean Montero 26 on his return to the Roig Arena, Nikola Mirotic 19 for Valencia, not enough.

The bet is lost: Valencia +2.5 at 1.93 with 1xbet, 0.25 unit, -$25. Valencia needed to win or lose by two points or fewer, overtime included; it lost by five. The close came in at 1.91, under my take: the market ended up on the side of this bet, too late for the ticket. First defeat of the season for Valencia; Olympiacos moves to 4-1.