Five games in seven days: Olympiacos land at Virtus Bologna without Milutinov

Georgios Bartzokas did not mince his words on Monday: “5 games in 7 days. For me, that’s not normal… we haven’t had a single training session.” On Thursday his Olympiacos, the reigning champions at 2-0, visit Virtus Bologna for round three of the EuroLeague. At 1.25 with Betano on Wednesday, the market still sees only one winner. My line sits elsewhere: eight and a half points of cushion for the home side.

Piraeus win everywhere, but their legs are counting the games

106-89 at Baskonia to open the season, then 93-91 in Kaunas on Tuesday: Fournier 19 points, Vezenkov 18, Montero 15 points and 7 assists. The results keep coming, the legs a little less so. Between the two away games the squad had no training session, and the club brought back Dunston and signed Papas “to make sure of the number of players”. When a champion signs players just to reach the count, the calendar has a problem. Bologna will be their third away game in a week.

Milutinov out, and the paint gets lighter

The Greek side’s centre will not play on Thursday: nursing a thigh problem since 13 September, he had been playing through pain, and this week’s injury report lists him out for rounds 2 and 3. Bartzokas is not selling a quick return either. The same report leaves three question marks around him, one of them in Bologna.

• Cory Joseph (Olympiacos): a back problem kept him out in Kaunas; he remains questionable for Thursday.
• Dunston is back in the group but did not leave the bench in Kaunas; Papas, signed for the headcount, stayed outside the twelve. Both questionable.
• Kokila (Virtus): listed out before the Milan derby, he now appears questionable, with no confirmed return; Casarin and Baiocchi remain outside the group, the coach’s choice.

A Virtus side under construction, but at home

Alex Mumbru took over a new team: nine signings, a new staff, and a frank admission of method, “we will adapt game by game”. Two defeats in two away games, but the second one was better than the first: beaten in Milan on Tuesday by a Devon Hall shot at the buzzer, after pulling level with 4.2 seconds left. Across their last five meetings Virtus are 0-5 against Olympiacos, including a 109-77 beating in Piraeus last season. But the last Olympiacos visit to Bologna was decided by three points, 94-97. A line of eight and a half points leaves room for a game that stays close.

On the style, the Italian press sees one idea in Mumbru’s team: run. Slow the game down, get physical, and Virtus go quiet. That is what Olympiacos do best.

+8.5 at 1.90: a bet on tired legs more than on quality

At 1.25, the straight win is priced out of reach. I am keeping Virtus +8.5, taken at 1.90 with Betano, and I still put the chance of Virtus winning or losing by eight points or fewer at 55%, overtime included; at 1.90, the odds imply 52.6%. The gap is thin, and it should stay thin: the value I see comes from the visitors’ legs and Milutinov’s absence, not from a sudden leap in Virtus’ level.

On Tuesday a single bookmaker priced this game; there are nine on Wednesday, and the +8.5 line now trades at 1.98 with BetMGM. The market has barely moved since Tuesday: the tired legs of Piraeus are still not in the price, and my price stays 1.90. The stake is the minimum, 0.25 units ($25): once my probability is blended with the market’s, the edge disappears and the site drops to the floor. That is exactly right for a low-conviction bet. Virtus win or lose by eight or fewer: +$22.50. Virtus lose by nine or more: -$25. 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and the Kelly calculator does the rest. My public record moves on game by game.

The holders fall in Bologna: 96-94

Virtus win 96-94 and end a run of five straight defeats to Olympiacos. My bet was a fatigue bet: Olympiacos on a third road trip in a week, without Milutinov, against a Virtus side that had taken Milan to the buzzer on Tuesday. At 1.25, the market saw only one favourite; it was caught out by a calendar Bartzokas already called abnormal.

My bet, Virtus +8.5 at 1.90 with Betano, wins: Virtus only needed to lose by eight, and they won the game. 0.25 units, $25 staked, $22.50 in profit. The stake stayed at the floor because the edge had melted once blended with the market; tonight the handicap never came close to the line.