Zalgiris – Anadolu Efes: the 1.39 favourite has won by six and seven points all season

For its second home game of the season, Zalgiris Kaunas hosts an Anadolu Efes side on one win and four defeats, three losses in a row, and without playmaker Mike James for seven to nine months. On Friday morning the market had the Lithuanians at 1.39 with 1xbet. For this Round 6 game I prefer the handicap to the outright: Efes +8.5 at 1.68 with Unibet.

Twenty turnovers: the Efes crisis lives in the ball

The last game says it all: 93-101 at home to Bayern, 20 turnovers, while Saric (21 points), Payne (18) and Strazel (15 points, 7 assists) carried the attack. The round before in Piraeus, the same fall: 66-89, 17 turnovers, 31 rebounds against 49, Saric on 1 point from 6 shots. Efes still scores. What breaks is the passing. “An important game to get back on track”, says Collin Malcolm.

• Mike James: Achilles tendon injured in Round 3, out for seven to nine months;
• Isaia Cordinier: operated on in May, still sidelined;
• Georgios Papagiannis: cruciate ligament, out since October 2025.

The EuroLeague medical report for Round 6 rules out nobody else on the Istanbul side. Payne, signed to take the playmaker spot James left empty, put up 18 points in that last game; Strazel absorbs the remaining minutes.

Zalgiris wins, by six or seven points

Opposite them, 2-3, a profile made for a handicap: both Lithuanian wins came on the road, 83-77 at Crvena Zvezda and 88-81 in Barcelona, by six and seven points. The only home game of the season went to Olympiacos by two (91-93), with Shaquille O’Neal in the stands. Evan Fournier came out of it calling the atmosphere “top 3” in the EuroLeague. Tomas Masiulis’s side, which took over from Andrea Trinchieri in June, has played just that one game at home.

The Lithuanian roster, meanwhile, is short: the Round 6 medical report gives no green light for Nigel Williams-Goss, hamstring injured on 25 September, and Saben Lee, hurt in preseason, remains day to day. At the pregame press conference, Pablo Laso still listed both, with Edwards and Maodo Lo, among Zalgiris’s strengths. Coach talk or an imminent return: hours before tip-off, I count on neither of them.

Round 5 set the ceiling: 80-99 at Fenerbahce, first quarter lost 14-27, Carsen Edwards and his 20 points the only player above 10, Valanciunas on 8 points and 10 rebounds. At around 17 points per game, Edwards carries the Lithuanian scoring; nobody else picks it up.

Seven of the last ten games within eight points

Across the two teams’ last ten games, seven were decided by eight points or fewer. The exceptions look alike: a failed away trip, Zalgiris at Fenerbahce (-19), Efes in Piraeus (-23). The rest of the time these two play close games, whoever wins.

Kaunas, a fortress Laso has already taken

The head-to-head goes to the Turks: Efes took the last three meetings, including 87-64 in Kaunas in December, Pablo Laso’s first game on the Istanbul bench. Last season the home side had won six of the previous seven duels. Kaunas remains a fortress; Laso still calls playing there very difficult, with one of the best crowds in the EuroLeague. This season’s version has played there once.

Efes +8.5 at 1.68 with Unibet

The market has Zalgiris winning by seven: the main line, -6.5, sits at 1.93 both ways. I give Efes 63% to cover +8.5 at 1.68 (Unibet price taken on Thursday), against roughly 57% from the market. The edge is thin: 0.25 units, $25, for $17 net if it lands. To weigh your own stake, the Kelly calculator does the maths in one click.

Efes wins or loses by eight points or fewer, the bet is won; Zalgiris wins by nine or more, the $25 is lost. Overtime included. A last reminder before tip-off: 18+. Only bet what you can afford to lose. This pick joins my public record, wins and losses alike.

85-70: Efes take it outright, the +8.5 never needed

Anadolu Efes won 85-70 at the Zalgirio Arena. Fifteen points: the +8.5 line was never in play, and Zalgiris lose at home for the second time in two home games. The first, against Olympiacos, was lost by two (91-93); this one by fifteen. Efes take their first road win of the season and stop a three-game skid in Kaunas.

I had this as a tight game: the Lithuanian wins had come by six and seven points, seven of the last ten games of either side had finished within eight. This one finishes at fifteen. Zalgiris stall at 70, their lowest score of the season, and the game stops at 155 points, fourteen under the main line of 169.

The pick wins: Efes +8.5 at 1.68 with Unibet, $25 staked, $17 won. My 63% on the cover held; what I missed was Efes taking the game outright, which the market put near 28%. By tip-off the same line was paying 1.81 against Thursday’s 1.68: the money had piled onto Zalgiris. It was wrong by more than I was. The $17 goes on my public record.